Do I ship it?

Games › MMORPG › MMORPG + Dungeon Crawler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dungeon Crawler MMORPG?

MMORPG + Dungeon Crawler

Only 10 developers shipped a paid Dungeon Crawler MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Path of Exile 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 80 more are announced, ×16 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $140k, ×107 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $150M, ×112032 the market median. Revenue is up 3260% on the market; 80 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 106.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 3260% on the market, 80 announced, ×16 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + Dungeon Crawler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for MMORPG + Dungeon Crawler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $4.2k (exactly $4,200)
Median $144k (exactly $143,928)
Top 25% $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551)
Top 5% $151M (exactly $150,906,681)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 81
Announced 80
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $20.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3260% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 70%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
Dungeon Crawler
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, Dungeon Crawler
Price point
$20.00 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 75% positive over 191,080 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.2k, median $140k, 1 in 4 over $6.4M, 1 in 20 over $150M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.2k. 6 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×16 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  5. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  6. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  7. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  11. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  12. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $30k · 95 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Path of Exile 2 2024 · EA · $151M Last Epoch 2024 · $112M Diablo® IV 2023 · $88M Fellowship 2025 · EA · $12M Pax Dei 2025 · $6.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Last Epoch older $34.99 106,364 76% 3.2M $112M (exactly $111,650,291) Eleventh Hour Games
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
Fellowship · EA $24.99 15,357 74% 461k $12M (exactly $11,513,143) Chief Rebel
Pax Dei $29.99 7,163 56% 215k $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) Mainframe Industries
Soulbound: Online · EA $14.99 562 58% 17k $253k (exactly $252,731) SpiderWare
Embers Adrift $19.99 240 69% 7.2k $144k (exactly $143,928) Stormhaven Studios
The Adventurer's Domain Online · EA older $15.99 207 65% 6.2k $99k (exactly $99,298) Unbalanced Equations
Zero-based World-从零开始 · EA older $18.99 149 68% 4.5k $85k (exactly $84,885) zerogame
Abyss · EA older $24.95 34 58% 1.0k $25k (exactly $25,449) Old World Labs
The Dawn: Sniper's Way $24.99 18 22% 540 $13k (exactly $13,495) PHOSPHORUS GAMES
Legends of Aria Eternal $20.00 7 71% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,200) Emergent Worlds
Arobynn: Sword of Adventure $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Jace Of Shadows Gaming LLC
Ferral Quest $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) ZonaBit's Games
Gate · EA $12.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) KJ-Kit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.