Do I ship it?

Games › MMORPG › MMORPG + Action RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action RPG MMORPG?

MMORPG + Action RPG

Of 23 developers who shipped a paid Action RPG MMORPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 172 more are announced, ×17 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.3k, ×6.2 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×2700 the market median. Revenue is up 430% on the market; 172 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 430% on the market, 172 announced, ×17 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + Action RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $1.6k → $14k → $41k → $449 → $3.0k (still earning) → $253k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for MMORPG + Action RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $8.3k (exactly $8,342)
Top 25% $253k (exactly $252,731)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 230
Announced 172
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 430% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 69%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, Action RPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, RPG, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 191,195 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $8.3k, 1 in 4 over $250k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 172 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×17 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  12. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Monster Hunter: World 2018 · $285M Path of Exile 2 2024 · EA · $151M Last Epoch 2024 · $112M Diablo® IV 2023 · $88M The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Last Epoch older $34.99 106,364 76% 3.2M $112M (exactly $111,650,291) Eleventh Hour Games
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
The Elder Scrolls® Online older $19.99 134,421 82% 4.0M $81M (exactly $80,612,274) ZeniMax Online Studios
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online older $19.99 78,661 86% 2.4M $47M (exactly $47,173,002) Square Enix
Black Desert older $9.99 63,052 75% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,896,684) Pearl Abyss
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
Guild Wars® Reforged $19.99 3,265 87% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) ArenaNet®
Soulbound: Online · EA $14.99 562 58% 17k $253k (exactly $252,731) SpiderWare
Gnome Online $17.99 124 73% 3.7k $67k (exactly $66,923) H-Production
Fantasy Online 2 · EA $9.99 173 82% 5.2k $52k (exactly $51,848) Pixel Games LLC
Spire Horizon Online $3.99 343 64% 10k $41k (exactly $41,057) Mendoka
StarArc Echo $5.99 149 66% 4.5k $27k (exactly $26,775) 兔狐喵菇工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.