Do I ship it?

Games › MMORPG › MMORPG + PvE

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE MMORPG?

MMORPG + PvE

Of 34 developers who shipped a paid PvE MMORPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 248 more are announced, ×11 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $25k, ×18 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4784 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 248 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 248 announced, ×11 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + PvE
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $42k → $1.6k → $41k → $144k → $6.4M → $25k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for MMORPG + PvE: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Median $25k (exactly $24,689)
Top 25% $720k (exactly $719,760)
Top 5% $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 249
Announced 248
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 74%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, PvE; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Character Customization, RPG
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 63% positive over 53,537 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $25k, 1 in 4 over $710k, 1 in 20 over $6.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 4 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 248 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×11 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  12. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Diablo® IV 2023 · $88M The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M Temtem 2022 · $42M ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M Last Oasis 2020 · EA · $18M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
The Elder Scrolls® Online older $19.99 134,421 82% 4.0M $81M (exactly $80,612,274) ZeniMax Online Studios
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
Last Oasis · EA older $29.99 20,443 63% 613k $18M (exactly $18,392,567) Donkey Crew
Fellowship · EA $24.99 15,357 74% 461k $12M (exactly $11,513,143) Chief Rebel
Absolver older $29.99 11,464 74% 344k $10M (exactly $10,314,161) Sloclap
Pax Dei $29.99 7,163 56% 215k $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) Mainframe Industries
Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen · EA $39.99 4,829 72% 145k $5.8M (exactly $5,793,351) Visionary Realms
Day of Dragons · EA older $19.99 6,278 68% 188k $3.8M (exactly $3,764,917) Beawesome Games
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
STARSEEKER: Astroneer Expeditions · EA $29.99 800 56% 24k $720k (exactly $719,760) System Era Softworks
Stars Reach · EA $29.99 322 52% 9.7k $290k (exactly $289,703) Playable Worlds, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.