Do I ship it?

GamesMMORPGMMORPG + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental MMORPG?

MMORPG + Incremental

Only 7 developers shipped a paid Incremental MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BitCraft Online, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 18 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×7.6 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $9.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×1187 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 18 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 18 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for MMORPG + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $9.6k (exactly $9,590)
Median $10k (exactly $10,190)
Top 25% $107k (exactly $107,157)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 53
Announced 18
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 74%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, Incremental
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 4,201 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $9.6k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $9.6k. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  12. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
MMO98 $6.99 511 69% 15k $107k (exactly $107,157) BiteMe Games
Adventure Land - The Code MMORPG $14.99 144 84% 4.3k $65k (exactly $64,757) Wizard
Guilds of Mountgate · EA $9.99 34 82% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Beaver Fever Games
Upgradia · EA $9.99 32 65% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Mytharia
Pillazon: MMO Drug Lord Tycoon · EA older $4.99 33 66% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) PiCorp
Flower Design older $0.99 84 60% 2.5k $2.5k (exactly $2,495) PanGuoJun
新星辰变 older $7.99 4 25% 120 $959 (exactly $959) 三冬游戏工作室
Cheese Co-op Clicker Simulator $0.99 17 76% 510 $505 (exactly $505) asxgames
Earth Online · EA $1.99 8 62% 240 $478 (exactly $478) Galaxy Craft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.