Do I ship it?

GamesMMORPGMMORPG + Character Customization

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Character Customization MMORPG?

MMORPG + Character Customization

Of 28 developers who shipped a paid Character Customization MMORPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 217 more are announced, ×14 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $52k, ×38 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4784 the market median. Revenue is up 285% on the market; 217 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 38.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 285% on the market, 217 announced, ×14 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + Character Customization
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $99k → $1.6k → $14M → $3.6M → $52k → $2.0M → $111k (still earning) → $9.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for MMORPG + Character Customization: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Median $52k (exactly $51,848)
Top 25% $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324)
Top 5% $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 242
Announced 217
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 285% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 71%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
Character Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, Character Customization; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry PvE, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 209,347 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $52k, 1 in 4 over $2.1M, 1 in 20 over $6.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 4 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 217 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×14 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  12. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $30k · 95 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
Last Epoch older $34.99 106,364 76% 3.2M $112M (exactly $111,650,291) Eleventh Hour Games
Fallout 76 older $39.99 78,346 74% 2.4M $94M (exactly $93,991,696) Bethesda Game Studios
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
The Elder Scrolls® Online older $19.99 134,421 82% 4.0M $81M (exactly $80,612,274) ZeniMax Online Studios
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online older $19.99 78,661 86% 2.4M $47M (exactly $47,173,002) Square Enix
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
Red Dead Online older $19.99 59,572 82% 1.8M $36M (exactly $35,725,328) Rockstar Games
DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE 2 older $19.99 45,155 90% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,079,453) QLOC, Dimps Corporation
Pax Dei $29.99 7,163 56% 215k $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) Mainframe Industries
Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen · EA $39.99 4,829 72% 145k $5.8M (exactly $5,793,351) Visionary Realms
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
Guild Wars® Reforged $19.99 3,265 87% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) ArenaNet®
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Equinox: Homecoming $14.99 1,294 80% 39k $582k (exactly $581,912) Blue Scarab Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.