Do I ship it?

GamesMMORPGMMORPG + Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building MMORPG?

MMORPG + Building

Only 5 developers shipped a paid Building MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Quinfall, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 55 more are announced, ×18 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $49k against a market of $1.3k. 55 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 36.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 55 announced, ×18 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for MMORPG + Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $33k (exactly $33,267)
Median $49k (exactly $48,576)
Top 25% $290k (exactly $289,703)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 71
Announced 55
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 66%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $15.99.

The top 10 games average 63% positive over 67,342 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $34k, median $49k, 1 in 4 over $280k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $34k. 3 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×18 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  12. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Last Oasis · EA older $29.99 20,443 63% 613k $18M (exactly $18,392,567) Donkey Crew
Myth of Empires older $29.99 15,520 68% 466k $14M (exactly $13,963,344) Angela Game
Life is Feudal: Your Own older $19.99 8,804 65% 264k $5.3M (exactly $5,279,759) Bitbox Ltd.
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Citadel: Forged with Fire older $14.99 5,004 67% 150k $2.3M (exactly $2,250,299) Blue Isle Studios
Wurm Unlimited older $29.99 1,879 72% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) Code Club AB
Wild Terra 2: New Lands older $39.99 1,379 62% 41k $1.7M (exactly $1,654,386) Juvty Worlds
Boundless older $19.99 1,611 73% 48k $966k (exactly $966,117) Monumental, LLC
Stars Reach · EA $29.99 322 52% 9.7k $290k (exactly $289,703) Playable Worlds, Inc.
Xsyon - Prelude · EA older $29.99 307 69% 9.2k $276k (exactly $276,208) Notorious Games
Past Fate · EA $19.99 81 43% 2.4k $49k (exactly $48,576) Icy North Games
Ice World $9.99 111 57% 3.3k $33k (exactly $33,267) CoolRabbit Games
OPG: Clan Wars $9.99 101 74% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) Anarchy Games, Street's Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.