Should I ship an RPG MMORPG?
MMORPG + RPG
Of 55 developers who shipped a paid RPG MMORPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 454 more are announced, ×14 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 10 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $10k, ×7.6 the market's $1.3k for a 10 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4784 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 454 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) |
|---|---|
| Median | $10k (exactly $10,190) |
| Top 25% | $253k (exactly $252,731) |
| Top 5% | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 55 |
| Released games | 683 |
| Announced | 454 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 73%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MMORPG, RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, Crafting, Open World
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 225,102 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 97 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 454 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×14 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LootPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + MagicPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + FantasyPoor odds
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + ExplorationPoor odds
Comparable games
Monster Hunter: World 2018 · $285M 
Path of Exile 2 2024 · EA · $151M 
Last Epoch 2024 · $112M 
Fallout 76 2020 · $94M 
Diablo® IV 2023 · $88M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Monster Hunter: World | older | $29.99 | 317,068 89% | 9.5M | $285M (exactly $285,266,080) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Path of Exile 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 167,730 76% | 5.0M | $151M (exactly $150,906,681) | Grinding Gear Games |
| | Last Epoch | older | $34.99 | 106,364 76% | 3.2M | $112M (exactly $111,650,291) | Eleventh Hour Games |
| | Fallout 76 | older | $39.99 | 78,346 74% | 2.4M | $94M (exactly $93,991,696) | Bethesda Game Studios |
| | Diablo® IV | older | $49.99 | 58,668 69% | 1.8M | $88M (exactly $87,984,400) | Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. |
 | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
 | Tom Clancy’s The Division™ | older | $29.99 | 76,985 72% | 2.3M | $69M (exactly $69,263,404) | Massive Entertainment |
 | FINAL FANTASY XIV Online | older | $19.99 | 78,661 86% | 2.4M | $47M (exactly $47,173,002) | Square Enix |
 | Temtem | older | $44.99 | 31,263 82% | 938k | $42M (exactly $42,195,671) | Crema |
 | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
 | Fellowship | · EA | $24.99 | 15,357 74% | 461k | $12M (exactly $11,513,143) | Chief Rebel |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen | · EA | $39.99 | 4,829 72% | 145k | $5.8M (exactly $5,793,351) | Visionary Realms |
 | SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream | $59.99 | 2,021 64% | 61k | $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) | Dimps Corporation | |
 | The Quinfall | $9.99 | 12,073 50% | 362k | $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) | Vawraek Technology Inc. | |
 | Project: Gorgon | $24.99 | 4,704 81% | 141k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,589) | Elder Game, LLC | |
 | PIONER | · EA | $29.99 | 3,205 62% | 96k | $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) | GFAGAMES |
 | SpiritVale | · EA | $14.99 | 4,755 48% | 143k | $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) | Baikun Interactive |
 | Guild Wars® Reforged | $19.99 | 3,265 87% | 98k | $2.0M (exactly $1,958,020) | ArenaNet® |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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