Do I ship it?

GamesMMORPGMMORPG + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite MMORPG?

MMORPG + Roguelite

Only 4 developers shipped a paid Roguelite MMORPG in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 7 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 18 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $61k against a market of $1.3k. 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 45.4 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 18 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
MMORPG + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for MMORPG + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $61k (exactly $61,139)
Top 5% $253k (exactly $252,731)
Developers, 4 yr 7
Released games 26
Announced 18
Effort 10 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: too few recent games to read.

Free games: 65%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

MMORPG
effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
10 / 10 · studio only
Systems
MMORPG, Roguelite
Price point
$2.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 8 games average 63% positive over 992 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 4 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $750, 1 in 4 over $61k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 18 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

MMORPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootPoor odds8 devs · median $253k · 57 announced
  2. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  3. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $144k · 107 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds10 devs · median $144k · 80 announced
  5. + CraftingPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  6. + MagicPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 109 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds15 devs · median $65k · 130 announced
  8. + FantasyPoor odds27 devs · median $61k · 232 announced
  9. + Class-BasedPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds33 devs · median $52k · 252 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds28 devs · median $52k · 217 announced
  12. + ExplorationPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced

All 71 pairs on the MMORPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soulbound: Online · EA $14.99 562 58% 17k $253k (exactly $252,731) SpiderWare
Trolddom $9.99 204 94% 6.1k $61k (exactly $61,139) Plant Based Games
The Yellow King · EA older $8.99 195 46% 5.9k $53k (exactly $52,592) Spellbook
Fasaria World: Ancients of Moons + Server older $9.99 8 75% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Fasaria World
ChaosWorld older $2.99 10 20% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Dust Studios
Swordia $4.99 5 40% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Affliction Networks LLC
Yuki Onna: Snowball Fight! $1.99 4 75% 120 $239 (exactly $239) YStar
三国世界 - TKWORLD older $1.99 4 100% 120 $239 (exactly $239) 陈世杰
QChat older $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Qi Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.