Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History game?

Alternate History

Of 532 developers who shipped an Alternate-History game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,252 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×997 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,252 games are announced against 303 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,252 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 532
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.0k → $2.4k → $7.5k → $2.4k → $3.6k → $1.2k → $1.3k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 532
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,413)
Top 5% $626k (exactly $626,087)
Developers, 2 yr 532
Released games 1,837
Announced 1,252
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 307,674 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 310 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,252 games are announced against 303 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Alternate History

111 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Board Game + Alternate History Fair $1.2k 20 devs
  2. Incremental + Alternate History Fair $807 31 devs
  3. City Builder + Alternate History Poor odds $146k 17 devs
  4. Diplomacy + Alternate History Poor odds $79k 30 devs
  5. 4X + Alternate History Poor odds $61k 21 devs
  6. Colony Sim + Alternate History Poor odds $59k 16 devs
  7. Sandbox + Alternate History Poor odds $32k 39 devs
  8. Base Building + Alternate History Poor odds $31k 27 devs
  9. PvP + Alternate History Poor odds $29k 21 devs
  10. JRPG + Alternate History Poor odds $16k 21 devs
  11. Economy + Alternate History Poor odds $15k 52 devs
  12. Grand Strategy + Alternate History Poor odds $15k 50 devs
  13. RTS + Alternate History Poor odds $15k 34 devs
  14. Turn-Based Strategy + Alternate History Poor odds $14k 64 devs
  15. Trading + Alternate History Poor odds $14k 8 devs
  16. God Game + Alternate History Poor odds $9.9k 9 devs
  17. Tactical + Alternate History Poor odds $9.3k 51 devs
  18. Open World + Alternate History Poor odds $8.2k 37 devs
  19. Crafting + Alternate History Poor odds $7.9k 22 devs
  20. Co-op + Alternate History Poor odds $7.0k 21 devs
  21. Online Co-Op + Alternate History Poor odds $7.0k 16 devs
  22. Third-Person Shooter + Alternate History Poor odds $6.9k 12 devs
  23. Dating Sim + Alternate History Poor odds $6.5k 30 devs
  24. Tabletop + Alternate History Poor odds $6.3k 16 devs
  25. Wargame + Alternate History Poor odds $6.2k 61 devs
  26. Turn-Based Tactics + Alternate History Poor odds $6.0k 48 devs
  27. Party-Based RPG + Alternate History Poor odds $4.5k 15 devs
  28. Deckbuilding + Alternate History Poor odds $4.5k 13 devs
  29. Real Time Tactics + Alternate History Poor odds $4.0k 22 devs
  30. Hex Grid + Alternate History Poor odds $4.0k 10 devs
  31. Hack and Slash + Alternate History Poor odds $4.0k 26 devs
  32. Point & Click + Alternate History Poor odds $3.9k 58 devs
  33. Tactical RPG + Alternate History Poor odds $3.8k 21 devs
  34. Immersive Sim + Alternate History Poor odds $3.3k 41 devs
  35. Strategy + Alternate History Poor odds $3.0k 173 devs
  36. Simulation + Alternate History Poor odds $3.0k 179 devs
  37. Resource Management + Alternate History Poor odds $3.0k 55 devs
  38. Procedural Generation + Alternate History Poor odds $2.7k 20 devs
  39. Building + Alternate History Poor odds $2.7k 36 devs
  40. Collectathon + Alternate History Poor odds $2.6k 8 devs
  41. Survival + Alternate History Poor odds $2.5k 46 devs
  42. Turn-Based Combat + Alternate History Poor odds $2.5k 28 devs
  43. Puzzle + Alternate History Poor odds $2.4k 86 devs
  44. Management + Alternate History Poor odds $2.3k 66 devs
  45. RPG + Alternate History Poor odds $2.0k 145 devs
  46. Action RPG + Alternate History Poor odds $2.0k 41 devs
  47. Top-Down Shooter + Alternate History Poor odds $2.0k 18 devs
  48. Souls-like + Alternate History Poor odds $2.0k 11 devs
  49. Roguelike + Alternate History Poor odds $1.9k 33 devs
  50. Card Game + Alternate History Poor odds $1.9k 13 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M The Outlast Trials 2024 · $109M BioShock Infinite 2013 · $99M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
The Outlast Trials older $39.99 90,997 92% 2.7M $109M (exactly $109,169,101) Red Barrels
BioShock Infinite older $29.99 109,718 93% 3.3M $99M (exactly $98,713,285) Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (… (Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
REPLACED $19.99 9,130 84% 274k $5.5M (exactly $5,475,261) Sad Cat Studios
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.