Do I ship it?

GamesTabletopTabletop + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Tabletop game?

Tabletop + Alternate History

Only 16 developers shipped an Alternate-History Tabletop game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Doodle Empires, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×427 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 27 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 27 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tabletop + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $4.7k → $22k → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tabletop + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,298)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $43,756)
Top 5% $268k (exactly $268,206)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 40
Announced 27
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tabletop; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Choices Matter, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Lore-Rich, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,966 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tabletop with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BuildingFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  2. + CRPGFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  3. + RTSFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  4. + MilitaryFair30 devs · median $1.4k · 20 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  6. + DragonsFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + MahjongFair26 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  8. + WargameFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  9. + SpaceFair29 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair35 devs · median $807 · 33 announced
  11. + HorrorFair50 devs · median $776 · 51 announced
  12. + Local Co-OpFair31 devs · median $748 · 33 announced

All 155 pairs on the Tabletop page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Scythe: Digital Edition older $19.99 3,164 89% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) The Knights of Unity
Sovereign Syndicate older $19.99 573 79% 17k $344k (exactly $343,628) Crimson Herring Studios
Doodle Empires · EA $6.99 1,279 92% 38k $268k (exactly $268,206) Turtle Stack Games
Unmatched: Digital Edition older $22.99 274 74% 8.2k $189k (exactly $188,978) Dire Wolf
Tiny Civilization older $1.99 2,134 92% 64k $127k (exactly $127,400) 喜人一个
Artist Life Simulator older $19.99 173 79% 5.2k $104k (exactly $103,748) Interactive Fate
Duskpunk $19.99 171 91% 5.1k $103k (exactly $102,549) Clockwork Bird, James Patton
Mr. President $19.99 162 75% 4.9k $97k (exactly $97,151) Exia Labs
Lower? Higher! $9.99 146 67% 4.4k $44k (exactly $43,756) Unplugged Studio
Headquarters: Cold War $29.99 37 64% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) Starni Games
SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD $9.99 73 83% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Logix Interactive
Songs of Life $8.99 80 81% 2.4k $22k (exactly $21,576) DreamStep
Reptilian Rising $29.99 7 100% 210 $6.3k (exactly $6,298) Gregarious Games, Robot Circus, Hyper L… (Gregarious Games, Robot Circus, Hyper Luminal Games)
Vox Populi: Germany 2025 $7.99 8 87% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Velsin
Frontline: Afrika Korps $14.99 3 100% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Frontline: Games Series

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.