Games › Puzzle › Puzzle + Alternate History
Should I ship an Alternate-History Puzzle game?
Puzzle + Alternate History
Of 86 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 204 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×368 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 204 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $479 (exactly $479) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,398) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $11,953) |
| Top 5% | $231k (exactly $231,146) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 86 |
| Released games | 294 |
| Announced | 204 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Puzzle
- effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Puzzle; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 6,239 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. 9 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 204 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Medical SimFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + VampiresFair
- + CatsFair
- + DemonsFair
- + God GameFair
- + RomanceFair
- + AutomationFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + LemmingsFair
Comparable games
Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M 
FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S: HELP WANTED 2019 · $11M 
ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game 2018 · $4.5M 
FAITH: The Unholy Trinity 2022 · $3.6M 
Hypnospace Outlaw 2019 · $2.9M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Atomic Heart | older | $59.99 | 41,690 81% | 1.3M | $75M (exactly $75,029,493) | Mundfish |
| | FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S: HELP WANTED | older | $29.99 | 12,257 95% | 368k | $11M (exactly $11,027,623) | Steel Wool Studios |
| | ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game | older | $14.99 | 9,991 84% | 300k | $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) | AtomTeam |
| | FAITH: The Unholy Trinity | older | $14.99 | 8,006 95% | 240k | $3.6M (exactly $3,600,298) | Airdorf Games |
| | Hypnospace Outlaw | older | $19.99 | 4,824 96% | 145k | $2.9M (exactly $2,892,953) | Tendershoot, Michael Lasch, ThatWhichIs… (Tendershoot, Michael Lasch, ThatWhichIs Media) |
 | Unity of Command II | older | $29.99 | 2,042 79% | 61k | $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) | 2x2 Games, Croteam |
 | INDUSTRIA | older | $19.99 | 3,053 73% | 92k | $1.8M (exactly $1,830,884) | Bleakmill |
 | The Silent Age | older | $9.99 | 5,966 93% | 179k | $1.8M (exactly $1,788,010) | House On Fire |
 | Moons of Madness | older | $24.99 | 2,189 77% | 66k | $1.6M (exactly $1,641,093) | Rock Pocket Games |
 | Day of the Tentacle Remastered | older | $14.99 | 3,536 97% | 106k | $1.6M (exactly $1,590,139) | Double Fine Productions, Shiny Shoe |
 | Hail to the Rainbow | $14.99 | 2,533 90% | 76k | $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) | Носков Сергей | |
 | Kvark | $19.99 | 461 86% | 14k | $276k (exactly $276,462) | Latest Past, Perun Creative | |
 | Go Home Annie: An SCP Game | $19.99 | 440 79% | 13k | $264k (exactly $263,868) | Misfit Village | |
 | TR-49 | $6.99 | 1,197 94% | 36k | $251k (exactly $251,011) | inkle Ltd | |
 | DAEMON MASQUERADE | $14.99 | 514 95% | 15k | $231k (exactly $231,146) | Callum Page | |
 | Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate | $49.99 | 149 62% | 4.5k | $223k (exactly $223,455) | Mighty Eyes | |
 | Mosaic of the Strange | $12.99 | 226 92% | 6.8k | $88k (exactly $88,072) | Mark Ffrench | |
 | Sanatorium - A Mental Asylum Simulator | $12.99 | 208 59% | 6.2k | $81k (exactly $81,058) | Zeitglas | |
 | Below, Rusted Gods | $7.99 | 320 87% | 9.6k | $77k (exactly $76,704) | FromSouthGames | |
 | Pyramids and Aliens: Escape Room | $12.99 | 191 81% | 5.7k | $74k (exactly $74,433) | mc2games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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