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Should I ship an Alternate-History Trading game?
Trading + Alternate History
Only 8 developers shipped an Alternate-History Trading game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Europa Universalis V, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $14k, ×23 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $570; 1 in 20 cleared $45M, ×72656 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 23 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $564 (exactly $564) |
|---|---|
| Median | $14k (exactly $14,391) |
| Top 25% | $107k (exactly $107,157) |
| Top 5% | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 27 |
| Announced | 23 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 200% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Trading
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Trading
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 67% positive over 30,812 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $570. 23 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Trading with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + MiningFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + FlightPoor odds
- + SportsPoor odds
- + CollectathonPoor odds
- + PhysicsPoor odds
- + DrivingPoor odds
- + LootPoor odds
Comparable games
Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M 
Slaves of Rome 2024 · $1.4M 
Power & Revolution 2022 Edition 2022 · $1.2M 
Power & Revolution 2021 Edition 2021 · $943k 
Imperiums: Greek Wars 2020 · $408k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
| | Slaves of Rome | older | $24.99 | 1,924 73% | 58k | $1.4M (exactly $1,442,423) | Biggus Diccus Games |
| | Power & Revolution 2022 Edition | older | $49.99 | 815 60% | 24k | $1.2M (exactly $1,222,256) | Eversim |
| | Power & Revolution 2021 Edition | older | $49.99 | 629 56% | 19k | $943k (exactly $943,311) | Eversim |
| | Imperiums: Greek Wars | older | $29.99 | 453 83% | 14k | $408k (exactly $407,564) | Kube Games |
 | Primitive Society Simulator | · EA older | $19.99 | 647 83% | 19k | $388k (exactly $388,006) | YSH BigDove |
 | The Emperor and State | · EA older | $14.99 | 314 55% | 9.4k | $141k (exactly $141,206) | 涂途 |
 | MMO98 | $6.99 | 511 69% | 15k | $107k (exactly $107,157) | BiteMe Games | |
 | Commander: Conquest of the Americas | older | $9.99 | 149 51% | 4.5k | $45k (exactly $44,655) | Nitro Games |
 | Globalism | · EA | $29.99 | 17 52% | 510 | $15k (exactly $15,295) | igelanium games |
 | Governor | $15.99 | 30 76% | 900 | $14k (exactly $14,391) | Daniling | |
 | Eon Empires | $9.99 | 4 50% | 120 | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) | Aeonforge Studio | |
 | Mark's Power | $0.99 | 19 73% | 570 | $564 (exactly $564) | Dmitriy Zaletov | |
 | Balkan Bloodbath | $9.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | Michael Richard Lannon | |
 | Voyage Trader | · EA | $3.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Voyager |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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