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Should I ship an Alternate-History Turn-Based Combat game?
Turn-Based Combat + Alternate History
Of 28 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1099 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 101 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.5k (exactly $2,545) |
| Top 25% | $55k (exactly $55,145) |
| Top 5% | $690k (exactly $690,474) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 28 |
| Released games | 128 |
| Announced | 101 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based Combat
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Tactics, Adventure
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 18,614 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 5 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + RomeFair
- + CookingFair
- + UndergroundFair
- + IdlerFair
- + DiceFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + SolitaireFair
Comparable games
XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M 
Digimon Story Time Stranger 2025 · $33M 
ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game 2018 · $4.5M 
Encased: A Sci-Fi Post-Apocalyptic RPG 2021 · $3.8M 
Millennia 2024 · $3.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | XCOM® 2 | older | $19.99 | 79,998 84% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,974,801) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Digimon Story Time Stranger | $69.99 | 15,845 89% | 475k | $33M (exactly $33,269,746) | Media.Vision Inc. | |
| | ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game | older | $14.99 | 9,991 84% | 300k | $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) | AtomTeam |
| | Encased: A Sci-Fi Post-Apocalyptic RPG | older | $29.99 | 4,193 77% | 126k | $3.8M (exactly $3,772,442) | Dark Crystal Games |
| | Millennia | older | $39.99 | 2,976 67% | 89k | $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) | C Prompt Games |
 | 江湖十一 | older | $17.99 | 5,385 42% | 162k | $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) | 万象皆春 |
 | Curious Expedition 2 | older | $19.99 | 3,861 88% | 116k | $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) | Maschinen-Mensch |
 | Unity of Command II | older | $29.99 | 2,042 79% | 61k | $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) | 2x2 Games, Croteam |
 | 再刷一把 PlayAgain | older | $8.99 | 4,416 67% | 132k | $1.2M (exactly $1,190,995) | 滑稽工作室 |
 | Combat Mission Shock Force 2 | older | $59.99 | 624 80% | 19k | $1.1M (exactly $1,123,013) | Battlefront |
 | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software | |
 | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games | |
 | Blood Crawler | $12.99 | 279 76% | 8.4k | $109k (exactly $108,726) | c3アート | |
 | TK Punk Gold | $11.99 | 291 87% | 8.7k | $105k (exactly $104,673) | 桑尼游戏(Sunny Game) | |
 | Water Margin Scrolls | $9.99 | 244 40% | 7.3k | $73k (exactly $73,127) | QingHe Games | |
 | Ultimate Hero | $9.99 | 184 65% | 5.5k | $55k (exactly $55,145) | Fishwharf | |
 | Three Kingdoms Classic | $12.99 | 127 88% | 3.8k | $49k (exactly $49,492) | SEEAT | |
 | Earth vs Mars | $14.99 | 74 85% | 2.2k | $33k (exactly $33,278) | Relic Entertainment | |
 | Religion inc. | $4.99 | 128 72% | 3.8k | $19k (exactly $19,162) | GameFirst |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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