Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Crafting game?

Crafting + Alternate History

Of 22 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.9k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×259 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 67 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 67 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $11k → $388k → $101k → $3.6k → $122k → $5.8k (still earning) → $52k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $900 (exactly $900)
Median $7.9k (exactly $7,913)
Top 25% $101k (exactly $100,543)
Top 5% $163k (exactly $162,937)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 77
Announced 67
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Survival
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 3,618 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $7.9k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 5 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Fantasy Map Simulator 2024 · EA · $1.0M Tunguska: The Visitation - Final Cut 2021 · $756k River Town Factory 2024 · $574k Primitive Society Simulator 2024 · EA · $388k Another Try 2 2025 · EA · $210k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fantasy Map Simulator · EA older $7.99 4,190 89% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) The Stranger
Tunguska: The Visitation - Final Cut older $14.99 1,682 87% 50k $756k (exactly $756,395) Rotorist Workshop
River Town Factory older $14.99 1,277 88% 38k $574k (exactly $574,267) iFAction Studio
Primitive Society Simulator · EA older $19.99 647 83% 19k $388k (exactly $388,006) YSH BigDove
Another Try 2 · EA $6.99 1,000 53% 30k $210k (exactly $209,700) Hoki Wolf Studio
C.A.S.T. (CHERNOZEM ANOMALY STRIKE TEAM) $6.99 777 87% 23k $163k (exactly $162,937) BRAIN DOES (NOT) WORK
Polylithic $14.99 278 71% 8.3k $125k (exactly $125,017) polyperfect
Execute $5.99 679 91% 20k $122k (exactly $122,016) Payne Robinson
Pandemic Train older $16.99 237 57% 7.1k $121k (exactly $120,799) Trigger Labs
City 20 · EA $19.99 197 72% 5.9k $118k (exactly $118,141) Untold Games
The Last FARMER $12.99 258 56% 7.7k $101k (exactly $100,543) Geekon
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala
ASTROBOTANICA · EA $19.99 76 59% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Space Goblin Studio
FULL METAL COFFIN $4.99 137 94% 4.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) Titanite, Mantle Array, Xenith
CHEMISTS: Dead Zone · EA $15.99 24 62% 720 $12k (exactly $11,513) RPAX GAMING

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.