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Should I ship an Alternate-History Wargame?
Wargame + Alternate History
Of 61 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 114 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.2k, ×9.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.4M, ×8639 the market median. Revenue is up 315% on the market; 114 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.3k (exactly $1,259) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.2k (exactly $6,236) |
| Top 25% | $61k (exactly $60,570) |
| Top 5% | $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 61 |
| Released games | 237 |
| Announced | 114 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 315% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Wargame
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Wargame; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Grand Strategy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 67,067 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 7 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 114 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Inventory ManagementFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + LogicFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + StealthPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
Comparable games
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M 
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV 2020 · $24M 
Wargame: Red Dragon 2014 · $14M 
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII 2016 · $10M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
| | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV | older | $59.99 | 13,086 62% | 393k | $24M (exactly $23,550,874) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
| | Wargame: Red Dragon | older | $29.99 | 15,758 88% | 473k | $14M (exactly $14,177,473) | Eugen Systems |
| | Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII | older | $59.99 | 5,828 57% | 175k | $10M (exactly $10,488,652) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator | $19.99 | 13,278 97% | 398k | $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) | Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos | |
 | Sprocket | · EA older | $19.99 | 12,336 92% | 370k | $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) | Hamish Dunn |
 | Gunner, HEAT, PC! | · EA older | $29.99 | 7,603 91% | 228k | $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) | Radian Simulations LLC |
 | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE | $59.99 | 3,118 49% | 94k | $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Age of History 3 | $9.99 | 18,102 85% | 543k | $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | '83 | · EA | $29.99 | 1,228 65% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) | Blue Dot Games |
 | KAISERPUNK | $29.99 | 884 71% | 27k | $795k (exactly $795,335) | Overseer Games | |
 | Age of History 2: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 2,600 83% | 78k | $779k (exactly $779,220) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | Ratten Reich | $19.99 | 616 40% | 18k | $369k (exactly $369,415) | METALLADLERSTUDIO | |
 | Solar Nations 2 | · EA | $14.99 | 609 85% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | Flomgus Games |
 | Doodle Empires | · EA | $6.99 | 1,279 92% | 38k | $268k (exactly $268,206) | Turtle Stack Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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