Do I ship it?

Games › Hex Grid › Hex Grid + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Alternate History

Only 10 developers shipped an Alternate-History Hex Grid game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sid Meier's Civilization VII, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×6.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $94M, ×149751 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 27 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.4 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 27 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Hex Grid + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,047)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $54,728)
Top 5% $94M (exactly $94,043,463)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 32
Announced 27
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.90

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Hex Grid
Price point
$9.90 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 48% positive over 45,078 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $54k, 1 in 20 over $94M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 27 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M Millennia 2024 · $3.6M Curious Expedition 2 2021 · $2.3M Scythe: Digital Edition 2018 · $1.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
Millennia older $39.99 2,976 67% 89k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) C Prompt Games
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
Scythe: Digital Edition older $19.99 3,164 89% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) The Knights of Unity
Unity of Command II older $29.99 2,042 79% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) 2x2 Games, Croteam
Carrier Battles 4 Guadalcanal - Pacific War Naval Warfare older $29.99 305 87% 9.2k $274k (exactly $274,408) Cyril Jarnot
DAISENRYAKU PERFECT 4.0 older $59.99 117 35% 3.5k $211k (exactly $210,565) Systemsoft beta, Inc.
Möbius Front '83 older $19.99 328 74% 9.8k $197k (exactly $196,702) Zachtronics
Strategic Mind: Spectre of Communism older $29.99 193 78% 5.8k $174k (exactly $173,642) Starni Games
Imperial Ambitions $19.99 101 81% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) aoiti
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics
Politon $4.99 81 90% 2.4k $12k (exactly $12,126) Pinq Games
America Against Ants $14.99 9 100% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) Aartform Games, Mark Brendan
ErMa (Early Mammal) $7.99 11 90% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) AlmyriganHero
Restitutor: Empire Restored · EA $5.99 13 84% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) FishPond
Director of Solar Affairs $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Tupolev the Ascender
Ancient Wonders Atlantis $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Seven Sails Games
Kingdom Wars $9.90 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Obsidiagon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.