Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Alternate History

Of 48 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 120 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×9.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5113 the market median. Revenue is up 845% on the market; 120 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 845% on the market, 120 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $64k → $12k → $6.7k → $1.7k → $6.0k → $6.3k (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $6.0k (exactly $5,998)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $53,978)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 185
Announced 120
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 845% on the market, supply 170% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Turn-Based Strategy, Strategy, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 51% positive over 52,972 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $6.0k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 120 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV older $59.99 13,086 62% 393k $24M (exactly $23,550,874) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII older $59.99 5,828 57% 175k $10M (exactly $10,488,652) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Phantom Doctrine older $39.99 3,821 73% 115k $4.6M (exactly $4,584,054) CreativeForge Games
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XI with Power Up Kit older $39.99 3,754 92% 113k $4.5M (exactly $4,503,674) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery older $24.99 4,861 78% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,644,292) Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co.… (Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co., Ltd.)
Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition $49.99 2,141 68% 64k $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) Oxide Games
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
The Necromancer's Tale $24.99 921 91% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Psychic Software
Aether & Iron $24.99 521 84% 16k $391k (exactly $390,594) Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games
The Succession of Changing Kings $9.99 487 86% 15k $146k (exactly $145,954) KwaKwaGames
Requiem of Reuinis $11.99 359 91% 11k $129k (exactly $129,132) Zaxiquej, Otogen Studio
TK Punk Gold $11.99 291 87% 8.7k $105k (exactly $104,673) 桑尼游戏(Sunny Game)
Water Margin Scrolls $9.99 244 40% 7.3k $73k (exactly $73,127) QingHe Games
Imperial Ambitions $19.99 101 81% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) aoiti

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.