Games › Turn-Based Tactics › Turn-Based Tactics + Alternate History
Should I ship an Alternate-History Turn-Based Tactics?
Turn-Based Tactics + Alternate History
Of 48 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 120 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×9.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5113 the market median. Revenue is up 845% on the market; 120 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.0k (exactly $5,998) |
| Top 25% | $54k (exactly $53,978) |
| Top 5% | $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 48 |
| Released games | 185 |
| Announced | 120 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 845% on the market, supply 170% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based Tactics
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based Tactics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Turn-Based Strategy, Strategy, RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 51% positive over 52,972 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 120 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + TanksFair
- + AutomationFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + DiceFair
- + MiningFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Psychological HorrorFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + PsychologicalFair
- + PuzzleFair
- + PlatformerLong shot
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
| | XCOM® 2 | older | $19.99 | 79,998 84% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,974,801) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV | older | $59.99 | 13,086 62% | 393k | $24M (exactly $23,550,874) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
| | Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII | older | $59.99 | 5,828 57% | 175k | $10M (exactly $10,488,652) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
| | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE | $59.99 | 3,118 49% | 94k | $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
| | Phantom Doctrine | older | $39.99 | 3,821 73% | 115k | $4.6M (exactly $4,584,054) | CreativeForge Games |
| | Romance of the Three Kingdoms XI with Power Up Kit | older | $39.99 | 3,754 92% | 113k | $4.5M (exactly $4,503,674) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
| | Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery | older | $24.99 | 4,861 78% | 146k | $3.6M (exactly $3,644,292) | Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co.… (Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co., Ltd.) |
| | Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition | $49.99 | 2,141 68% | 64k | $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) | Oxide Games | |
| | 江湖十一 | older | $17.99 | 5,385 42% | 162k | $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) | 万象皆春 |
| | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software | |
| | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games | |
| | The Succession of Changing Kings | $9.99 | 487 86% | 15k | $146k (exactly $145,954) | KwaKwaGames | |
| | Requiem of Reuinis | $11.99 | 359 91% | 11k | $129k (exactly $129,132) | Zaxiquej, Otogen Studio | |
| | TK Punk Gold | $11.99 | 291 87% | 8.7k | $105k (exactly $104,673) | 桑尼游戏(Sunny Game) | |
| | Water Margin Scrolls | $9.99 | 244 40% | 7.3k | $73k (exactly $73,127) | QingHe Games | |
| | Imperial Ambitions | $19.99 | 101 81% | 3.0k | $61k (exactly $60,570) | aoiti |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.