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Should I ship an Alternate-History Dating Sim?
Dating Sim + Alternate History
Of 30 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×647 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 35 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $537 (exactly $537) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.5k (exactly $6,480) |
| Top 25% | $25k (exactly $24,929) |
| Top 5% | $407k (exactly $406,597) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 30 |
| Released games | 97 |
| Announced | 35 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Dating Sim
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Choices Matter, RPG
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,522 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WarStrong odds
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Souls-likeStrong odds
- + AliensStrong odds
- + PlatformerStrong odds
- + HistoricalFair
- + FPSFair
- + Post-apocalypticFair
- + Quick-Time EventsFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + Action-AdventureFair
- + TacticalFair
Comparable games
The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth 2026 · $1.5M 
Slaves of Rome 2024 · $1.4M 
SEX with HITLER 2022 · $704k 
Vampires' Melody 2020 · $665k 
Nigate Tale 2024 · $407k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth | $19.99 | 2,564 91% | 77k | $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) | 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室 | |
| | Slaves of Rome | older | $24.99 | 1,924 73% | 58k | $1.4M (exactly $1,442,423) | Biggus Diccus Games |
| | SEX with HITLER | older | $6.99 | 3,358 81% | 101k | $704k (exactly $704,173) | Adolf Games |
| | Vampires' Melody | older | $3.99 | 5,559 97% | 167k | $665k (exactly $665,412) | AsicxArt |
| | Nigate Tale | $19.99 | 678 67% | 20k | $407k (exactly $406,597) | Hermit Games, 2P Games | |
 | Sex with Stalin | older | $5.99 | 2,217 83% | 67k | $398k (exactly $398,395) | Mova Games |
 | Cockwork Industries Complete | older | $9.99 | 864 76% | 26k | $259k (exactly $258,941) | Digital Seductions |
 | Ambition: A Minuet in Power | older | $20.99 | 334 85% | 10k | $210k (exactly $210,320) | Joy Manufacturing Co. |
 | ~Be a maid in the Demon World~ The Secret Café of the Demon Angel Hero. | older | $18.99 | 320 74% | 9.6k | $182k (exactly $182,304) | Kokutou Umeboshi |
 | Mask of the Rose | older | $19.99 | 260 76% | 7.8k | $156k (exactly $155,922) | Failbetter Games |
 | A Town Uncovered | $14.99 | 324 66% | 9.7k | $146k (exactly $145,703) | GeeSeki | |
 | Crown of Lust [18+] 👑 | $14.99 | 128 77% | 3.8k | $58k (exactly $57,562) | Taboo Tales 💘 | |
 | Time Space Rebuild | $4.99 | 377 76% | 11k | $56k (exactly $56,437) | INNOVATION DREAM | |
 | Demon Maiden and Slave Summoning | $10.99 | 106 82% | 3.2k | $35k (exactly $34,948) | Sunspot | |
 | Genso Manège | $39.99 | 28 82% | 840 | $34k (exactly $33,592) | MAGES. Inc. | |
 | The city of eyes and the girl in dreamland | $7.99 | 104 85% | 3.1k | $25k (exactly $24,929) | UVKen | |
 | Hyperborea: Hornysolation | $4.99 | 164 73% | 4.9k | $25k (exactly $24,551) | Hue Axis Entertainment | |
 | Wings of Empire | · EA | $14.99 | 49 87% | 1.5k | $22k (exactly $22,035) | Droid Productions |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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