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Should I ship an Alternate-History Action RPG?
Action RPG + Alternate History
Of 41 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 120 more are announced, ×8.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×447 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 120 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.0k (exactly $1,973) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $14,679) |
| Top 5% | $669k (exactly $668,930) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 41 |
| Released games | 131 |
| Announced | 120 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Action RPG
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Action RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Adventure
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 10,588 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 120 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + NavalFair
- + Local Co-OpFair
- + WesternFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + Walking SimulatorLong shot
- + WuxiaPoor odds
- + Character Action GamePoor odds
- + MechsPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + Bullet HeavenPoor odds
Comparable games
Assassin's Creed® III Remastered 2019 · $18M 
SD GUNDAM BATTLE ALLIANCE 2022 · $8.8M 
Steelrising 2022 · $6.9M 
Hell Clock 2025 · $2.1M 
Flintlock: The Siege of Dawn 2024 · $1.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Assassin's Creed® III Remastered | older | $39.99 | 14,646 63% | 439k | $18M (exactly $17,570,806) | Ubisoft Entertainment |
| | SD GUNDAM BATTLE ALLIANCE | older | $59.99 | 4,892 62% | 147k | $8.8M (exactly $8,804,132) | ARTDINK |
| | Steelrising | older | $49.99 | 4,568 73% | 137k | $6.9M (exactly $6,850,630) | Spiders |
| | Hell Clock | $19.99 | 3,535 82% | 106k | $2.1M (exactly $2,119,940) | Rogue Snail | |
| | Flintlock: The Siege of Dawn | older | $39.99 | 1,362 75% | 41k | $1.6M (exactly $1,633,991) | A44 Games |
 | Conquest Dark | · EA | $9.99 | 2,530 89% | 76k | $758k (exactly $758,241) | Eldritch Sword Games |
 | Tunguska: The Visitation - Final Cut | older | $14.99 | 1,682 87% | 50k | $756k (exactly $756,395) | Rotorist Workshop |
 | LIZARDS MUST DIE 2 | $9.99 | 2,232 94% | 67k | $669k (exactly $668,930) | the Bratans, Smola Game Studio | |
 | BDSM: Big Drunk Satanic Massacre | older | $19.99 | 1,114 87% | 33k | $668k (exactly $668,066) | Big Way Games |
 | Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles | · EA older | $19.99 | 1,094 74% | 33k | $656k (exactly $656,072) | Mauris, Tech-5 UG |
 | Nigate Tale | $19.99 | 678 67% | 20k | $407k (exactly $406,597) | Hermit Games, 2P Games | |
 | Crimson Oath | $14.99 | 750 82% | 23k | $337k (exactly $337,275) | Parry Frames Team | |
 | Arisen Force: HeroTest | $10.99 | 374 82% | 11k | $123k (exactly $123,308) | Lemport | |
 | The Last FARMER | $12.99 | 258 56% | 7.7k | $101k (exactly $100,543) | Geekon | |
 | Deadrock Redemption 2 | $14.99 | 123 86% | 3.7k | $55k (exactly $55,313) | Entropy Digital Entertainment | |
 | Core Awaken Rurumu's will | $12.99 | 58 96% | 1.7k | $23k (exactly $22,603) | CelLab | |
 | Geo Mythica | $14.99 | 50 100% | 1.5k | $22k (exactly $22,485) | Guin Entertainment, LLC |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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