Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Roguelike?

Roguelike + Alternate History

Of 33 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 109 more are announced, ×6.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1207 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 109 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 109 announced, ×6.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.5k → $742 → $1.3k → $12k → $2.0k → $1.2k → $1.2k (still earning) → $86k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,285)
Top 5% $758k (exactly $758,241)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 101
Announced 109
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 10,897 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 109 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Curious Expedition 2 2021 · $2.3M Sunless Skies: Sovereign Edition 2019 · $2.0M KLETKA 2026 · $1.9M Pathway 2019 · $915k Conquest Dark 2025 · EA · $758k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
Sunless Skies: Sovereign Edition older $24.99 2,661 84% 80k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,952) Failbetter Games
KLETKA $9.99 6,374 90% 191k $1.9M (exactly $1,910,288) Callback, ln404
Pathway older $15.99 1,908 76% 57k $915k (exactly $915,268) Robotality
Conquest Dark · EA $9.99 2,530 89% 76k $758k (exactly $758,241) Eldritch Sword Games
Multi Turret Academy · EA older $8.99 1,778 95% 53k $480k (exactly $479,527) Yulia Games
Nigate Tale $19.99 678 67% 20k $407k (exactly $406,597) Hermit Games, 2P Games
Fate Seeker: Journey older $10.00 1,105 77% 33k $332k (exactly $331,500) JSL Entertainment
Home and Dungeon older $16.99 333 84% 10k $170k (exactly $169,730) Manufacture
Grit and Valor - 1949 $19.99 274 75% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Milky Tea Studios
Defender of the Crown: The Legend Returns $19.99 216 66% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Black Tower Basement
Three Kingdoms : Alias · EA $7.99 359 79% 11k $86k (exactly $86,052) Plotrick
Skopje '83 $14.99 151 66% 4.5k $68k (exactly $67,905) Dark-1
Ultimate Hero $9.99 184 65% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) Fishwharf
Long Live Caesar $9.99 51 78% 1.5k $15k (exactly $15,285) Yury Khovansky, Vladislavs Viktorovs
When the Light Dies $4.99 80 71% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,976) Electric Monkeys, Secret Level Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.