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Should I ship an Alternate-History Incremental game?
Incremental + Alternate History
Of 31 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $810, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $240. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 28 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $239 (exactly $239) |
|---|---|
| Median | $807 (exactly $807) |
| Top 25% | $6.6k (exactly $6,594) |
| Top 5% | $364k (exactly $363,625) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 31 |
| Released games | 74 |
| Announced | 28 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $3.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Incremental
- effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Incremental; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Point & Click, Adventure, Idler
- Price point
- $3.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Retro, 1990's
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 5,560 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + OtomeStrong odds
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + FarmingFair
- + Dynamic NarrationFair
- + MiningFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Arena ShooterFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + UndergroundFair
- + LootFair
- + SupernaturalFair
Comparable games
xiuzhen idle 2025 · $416k 
FACEMINER 2025 · $364k 
~Be a maid in the Demon World~ The Secret Café of the Demon Angel Hero. 2020 · $182k 
Wishful Journey:Love Across Time 2024 · $128k 
Execute 2025 · $122k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | xiuzhen idle | $5.99 | 2,313 79% | 69k | $416k (exactly $415,646) | 游戏养家工作室 | |
| | FACEMINER | $7.99 | 1,517 90% | 46k | $364k (exactly $363,625) | Wristwork | |
| | ~Be a maid in the Demon World~ The Secret Café of the Demon Angel Hero. | older | $18.99 | 320 74% | 9.6k | $182k (exactly $182,304) | Kokutou Umeboshi |
| | Wishful Journey:Love Across Time | older | $9.99 | 426 88% | 13k | $128k (exactly $127,672) | Hillhouse Holdings Limited |
| | Execute | $5.99 | 679 91% | 20k | $122k (exactly $122,016) | Payne Robinson | |
 | MMO98 | $6.99 | 511 69% | 15k | $107k (exactly $107,157) | BiteMe Games | |
 | Mosaic of the Strange | $12.99 | 226 92% | 6.8k | $88k (exactly $88,072) | Mark Ffrench | |
 | 孟德大小姐与自爆少年THREE KINGDOM FANTASY | older | $7.99 | 307 66% | 9.2k | $74k (exactly $73,588) | 蓝铂工作室 |
 | Citizen of Rome - Dynasty Ascendant | older | $9.99 | 235 80% | 7.1k | $70k (exactly $70,430) | Citizen of Life Games |
 | 海蓝星之梦 | $3.99 | 220 98% | 6.6k | $26k (exactly $26,334) | PygmaGame | |
 | Time Guard - The Red Menace | $11.99 | 40 97% | 1.2k | $14k (exactly $14,388) | Zima software | |
 | The Midnight Crimes | $10.99 | 20 60% | 600 | $6.6k (exactly $6,594) | DeadlyCrow Games | |
 | DESTROYER BURGER | $14.99 | 13 100% | 390 | $5.8k (exactly $5,846) | Obscurant Games | |
 | Hidden Heir | $4.99 | 21 66% | 630 | $3.1k (exactly $3,144) | AYS CODE YAZILIM |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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