Games › Procedural Generation › Procedural Generation + Alternate History
Should I ship an Alternate-History Procedural Generation game?
Procedural Generation + Alternate History
Of 20 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×7.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×259 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 63 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,697) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $11,976) |
| Top 5% | $163k (exactly $162,937) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 20 |
| Released games | 57 |
| Announced | 63 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Procedural Generation
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Procedural Generation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Crafting
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,271 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SnowFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + DetectiveFair
- + Word GameFair
- + TypingFair
- + IdlerFair
- + LogicFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
Comparable games
Sprocket 2021 · EA · $7.4M 
Curious Expedition 2 2021 · $2.3M 
Sweet Transit 2024 · $1.2M 
Fantasy Map Simulator 2024 · EA · $1.0M 
Pathway 2019 · $915k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sprocket | · EA older | $19.99 | 12,336 92% | 370k | $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) | Hamish Dunn |
| | Curious Expedition 2 | older | $19.99 | 3,861 88% | 116k | $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) | Maschinen-Mensch |
| | Sweet Transit | older | $34.99 | 1,119 67% | 34k | $1.2M (exactly $1,174,614) | Ernestas Norvaišas |
| | Fantasy Map Simulator | · EA older | $7.99 | 4,190 89% | 126k | $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) | The Stranger |
| | Pathway | older | $15.99 | 1,908 76% | 57k | $915k (exactly $915,268) | Robotality |
 | Imperiums: Greek Wars | older | $29.99 | 453 83% | 14k | $408k (exactly $407,564) | Kube Games |
 | Ultimate Arena | older | $7.99 | 811 83% | 24k | $194k (exactly $194,397) | Triverske |
 | C.A.S.T. (CHERNOZEM ANOMALY STRIKE TEAM) | $6.99 | 777 87% | 23k | $163k (exactly $162,937) | BRAIN DOES (NOT) WORK | |
 | Life Eater | older | $14.99 | 330 86% | 9.9k | $148k (exactly $148,401) | Strange Scaffold |
 | Knights Within | · EA older | $17.99 | 250 95% | 7.5k | $135k (exactly $134,925) | Indecision Labs |
 | ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles | · EA | $8.99 | 192 96% | 5.8k | $52k (exactly $51,782) | Tomas Sala |
 | Observe | · EA | $7.99 | 74 91% | 2.2k | $18k (exactly $17,738) | Kisotik Games |
 | NovaMundi | $12.99 | 38 81% | 1.1k | $15k (exactly $14,809) | Slashware Interactive | |
 | When the Light Dies | $4.99 | 80 71% | 2.4k | $12k (exactly $11,976) | Electric Monkeys, Secret Level Studios | |
 | EarthRoyale 3 | · EA | $6.99 | 47 63% | 1.4k | $9.9k (exactly $9,856) | Lizzycat / Lizabeth Gidlund |
 | Millennium Strategy | $14.99 | 21 85% | 630 | $9.4k (exactly $9,444) | MiMo Games | |
 | MK-ULTRA Psychic Defense | · EA | $7.00 | 23 91% | 690 | $4.8k (exactly $4,830) | Zero Sequels |
 | Octopus Goulash | $12.99 | 10 70% | 300 | $3.9k (exactly $3,897) | Alessio Serenellini | |
 | Kamikaze Survivors | $9.99 | 9 77% | 270 | $2.7k (exactly $2,697) | DaboSoft |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.