Games › Survival › Survival + Alternate History
Should I ship an Alternate-History Survival game?
Survival + Alternate History
Of 46 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 115 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2880 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 115 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $629 (exactly $629) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.5k (exactly $2,545) |
| Top 25% | $55k (exactly $54,728) |
| Top 5% | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 46 |
| Released games | 149 |
| Announced | 115 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Survival
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Survival; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Management, Simulation
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 35,810 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 115 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Social DeductionFair
- + Word GameFair
- + CatsFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + DogsFair
- + Martial ArtsLong shot
- + Boomer ShooterLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
Comparable games
The Outlast Trials 2024 · $109M 
HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M 
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M 
Farthest Frontier 2025 · $26M 
Empires of the Undergrowth 2024 · $16M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Outlast Trials | older | $39.99 | 90,997 92% | 2.7M | $109M (exactly $109,169,101) | Red Barrels |
| | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
| | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
| | Empires of the Undergrowth | older | $29.99 | 17,483 94% | 524k | $16M (exactly $15,729,455) | Slug Disco |
 | FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S: HELP WANTED | older | $29.99 | 12,257 95% | 368k | $11M (exactly $11,027,623) | Steel Wool Studios |
 | ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game | older | $14.99 | 9,991 84% | 300k | $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) | AtomTeam |
 | Encased: A Sci-Fi Post-Apocalyptic RPG | older | $29.99 | 4,193 77% | 126k | $3.8M (exactly $3,772,442) | Dark Crystal Games |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Homefront | older | $19.99 | 4,181 66% | 125k | $2.5M (exactly $2,507,346) | Kaos Studios, Digital Extremes |
 | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games | |
 | Hail to the Rainbow | $14.99 | 2,533 90% | 76k | $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) | Носков Сергей | |
 | Surviving the Abyss | $19.99 | 1,044 64% | 31k | $626k (exactly $626,087) | Rocket Flair Studios | |
 | Another Try 2 | · EA | $6.99 | 1,000 53% | 30k | $210k (exactly $209,700) | Hoki Wolf Studio |
 | Polylithic | $14.99 | 278 71% | 8.3k | $125k (exactly $125,017) | polyperfect | |
 | City 20 | · EA | $19.99 | 197 72% | 5.9k | $118k (exactly $118,141) | Untold Games |
 | The Last FARMER | $12.99 | 258 56% | 7.7k | $101k (exactly $100,543) | Geekon | |
 | The Black Ice | · EA | $14.99 | 147 77% | 4.4k | $66k (exactly $66,106) | RED CRAB GAMES, Antelus Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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