Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Base Building game?

Base Building + Alternate History

Of 27 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $31k, ×50 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×5586 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 78 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 49.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 78 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $388k → $101k → $978k → $22k → $2.4k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $31k (exactly $31,184)
Top 25% $118k (exactly $118,141)
Top 5% $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 80
Announced 78
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Colony Sim, Strategy, Building
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 34,465 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $31k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $3.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 5 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M Farthest Frontier 2025 · $26M Empires of the Undergrowth 2024 · $16M Iron Harvest 2020 · $11M Cataclismo 2025 · $3.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic older $39.99 24,825 91% 745k $30M (exactly $29,782,552) 3Division
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Empires of the Undergrowth older $29.99 17,483 94% 524k $16M (exactly $15,729,455) Slug Disco
Iron Harvest older $29.99 11,682 74% 350k $11M (exactly $10,510,295) KING Art
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun
Command & Conquer™ Red Alert™ 3 older $6.96 14,605 85% 438k $3.0M (exactly $3,049,524) EA Los Angeles
Heart of the Machine $29.99 2,010 91% 60k $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) Arcen Games
Sweet Transit older $34.99 1,119 67% 34k $1.2M (exactly $1,174,614) Ernestas Norvaišas
Worshippers of Cthulhu $24.99 1,305 80% 39k $978k (exactly $978,358) Crazy Goat Games
Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3 - Uprising older $6.96 4,572 84% 137k $955k (exactly $954,634) EA Los Angeles
Surviving the Abyss $19.99 1,044 64% 31k $626k (exactly $626,087) Rocket Flair Studios
Polylithic $14.99 278 71% 8.3k $125k (exactly $125,017) polyperfect
City 20 · EA $19.99 197 72% 5.9k $118k (exactly $118,141) Untold Games
The Last FARMER $12.99 258 56% 7.7k $101k (exactly $100,543) Geekon
SandTable War: Three Kingdoms $9.99 301 84% 9.0k $90k (exactly $90,210) 古玩工作室
iDigging $2.99 729 69% 22k $65k (exactly $65,391) TWEN

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.