Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History JRPG?

JRPG + Alternate History

Of 21 developers who shipped an Alternate-History JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×26 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×647 the market median. Revenue is up 1845% on the market; 36 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 1845% on the market, 36 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $64k → $449 → $37k → $3.6k → $55k → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,109)
Median $16k (exactly $16,195)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $55,313)
Top 5% $407k (exactly $406,597)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 79
Announced 36
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1845% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Action RPG
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 17,928 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Digimon Story Time Stranger 2025 · $33M 再刷一把 PlayAgain 2022 · $1.2M Vampires' Melody 2020 · $665k Nigate Tale 2024 · $407k Long Gone Days 2023 · $351k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
再刷一把 PlayAgain older $8.99 4,416 67% 132k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,995) 滑稽工作室
Vampires' Melody older $3.99 5,559 97% 167k $665k (exactly $665,412) AsicxArt
Nigate Tale $19.99 678 67% 20k $407k (exactly $406,597) Hermit Games, 2P Games
Long Gone Days older $24.99 468 88% 14k $351k (exactly $350,860) This I Dreamt
~Be a maid in the Demon World~ The Secret Café of the Demon Angel Hero. older $18.99 320 74% 9.6k $182k (exactly $182,304) Kokutou Umeboshi
鸿源战纪 - Tales of Hongyuan older $12.99 442 78% 13k $172k (exactly $172,247) Hongyuan Game
Home and Dungeon older $16.99 333 84% 10k $170k (exactly $169,730) Manufacture
Arisen Force: HeroTest $10.99 374 82% 11k $123k (exactly $123,308) Lemport
Vampires' Melody 2 older $3.99 999 87% 30k $120k (exactly $119,580) AsicxArt
Blood Crawler $12.99 279 76% 8.4k $109k (exactly $108,726) c3アート
TK Punk Gold $11.99 291 87% 8.7k $105k (exactly $104,673) 桑尼游戏(Sunny Game)
Deadrock Redemption 2 $14.99 123 86% 3.7k $55k (exactly $55,313) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Class of Heroes 3 Remaster $29.99 52 67% 1.6k $47k (exactly $46,784) ACQUIRE Corp., Zerodiv
DEAD END COLOSSEUM SS $10.99 138 83% 4.1k $45k (exactly $45,499) TLACHTLI
Geo Mythica $14.99 50 100% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,485) Guin Entertainment, LLC
Spiritual Bond ～Breaking the curse, Intertwining fates～ $5.99 98 82% 2.9k $18k (exactly $17,611) MONRA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.