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Should I ship an Alternate-History game?
Alternate History
Of 532 developers who shipped an Alternate-History game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,252 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×997 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,252 games are announced against 303 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,797) |
| Top 25% | $18k (exactly $18,413) |
| Top 5% | $626k (exactly $626,087) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 532 |
| Released games | 1,837 |
| Announced | 1,252 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 307,674 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 310 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,252 games are announced against 303 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
All pairs with Alternate History
No pair with Alternate History has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M 
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
The Outlast Trials 2024 · $109M 
BioShock Infinite 2013 · $99M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | The Outlast Trials | older | $39.99 | 90,997 92% | 2.7M | $109M (exactly $109,169,101) | Red Barrels |
| | BioShock Infinite | older | $29.99 | 109,718 93% | 3.3M | $99M (exactly $98,713,285) | Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (… (Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (Linux)) |
 | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
 | Atomic Heart | older | $59.99 | 41,690 81% | 1.3M | $75M (exactly $75,029,493) | Mundfish |
 | Victoria 3 | older | $49.99 | 41,251 71% | 1.2M | $62M (exactly $61,864,125) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | XCOM® 2 | older | $19.99 | 79,998 84% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,974,801) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
 | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
 | Digimon Story Time Stranger | $69.99 | 15,845 89% | 475k | $33M (exactly $33,269,746) | Media.Vision Inc. | |
 | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
 | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator | $19.99 | 13,278 97% | 398k | $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) | Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos | |
 | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE | $59.99 | 3,118 49% | 94k | $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | REPLACED | $19.99 | 9,130 84% | 274k | $5.5M (exactly $5,475,261) | Sad Cat Studios | |
 | Age of History 3 | $9.99 | 18,102 85% | 543k | $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) | Łukasz Jakowski |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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