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Should I ship an Alternate-History PvP game?
PvP + Alternate History
Of 21 developers who shipped a paid Alternate-History PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 4 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 103 more are announced, ×6.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $29k, ×20 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×738 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 103 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) |
|---|---|
| Median | $29k (exactly $29,495) |
| Top 25% | $124k (exactly $123,737) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 121 |
| Announced | 103 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 220% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 43%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvP
- effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Grand Strategy, Political Sim
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 51% positive over 51,216 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 103 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M 
Marauders 2022 · EA · $12M 
Iron Harvest 2020 · $11M 
Call of Duty®: Vanguard 2023 · $7.5M 
Airships: Conquer the Skies 2018 · $4.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
| | Marauders | · EA older | $29.99 | 13,505 68% | 405k | $12M (exactly $12,150,448) | Small Impact Games |
| | Iron Harvest | older | $29.99 | 11,682 74% | 350k | $11M (exactly $10,510,295) | KING Art |
| | Call of Duty®: Vanguard | older | $59.99 | 4,172 67% | 125k | $7.5M (exactly $7,508,348) | Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, High Moon… (Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, High Moon Studios, Raven Software, Beenox, Demonware) |
| | Airships: Conquer the Skies | older | $24.99 | 6,197 95% | 186k | $4.6M (exactly $4,645,891) | David Stark |
 | Millennia | older | $39.99 | 2,976 67% | 89k | $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) | C Prompt Games |
 | Dino D-Day | older | $9.99 | 8,039 86% | 241k | $2.4M (exactly $2,409,288) | 800 North and Digital Ranch |
 | Scythe: Digital Edition | older | $19.99 | 3,164 89% | 95k | $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) | The Knights of Unity |
 | Sword and Fairy Inn 2 | older | $19.99 | 2,013 49% | 60k | $1.2M (exactly $1,207,196) | SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT |
 | Combat Mission Shock Force 2 | older | $59.99 | 624 80% | 19k | $1.1M (exactly $1,123,013) | Battlefront |
 | '83 | · EA | $29.99 | 1,228 65% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) | Blue Dot Games |
 | Age of History 2: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 2,600 83% | 78k | $779k (exactly $779,220) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | Solar Nations 2 | · EA | $14.99 | 609 85% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | Flomgus Games |
 | Thick As Thieves | $4.99 | 1,106 65% | 33k | $166k (exactly $165,568) | OtherSide Entertainment | |
 | States of Power | $11.99 | 344 88% | 10k | $124k (exactly $123,737) | Sarunas | |
 | Water Margin Scrolls | $9.99 | 244 40% | 7.3k | $73k (exactly $73,127) | QingHe Games | |
 | Maestro's Cold War 2 | $12.99 | 170 92% | 5.1k | $66k (exactly $66,249) | Maestro Cinetik | |
 | Earth vs Mars | $14.99 | 74 85% | 2.2k | $33k (exactly $33,278) | Relic Entertainment | |
 | Battlefall: State of Conflict | · EA | $19.99 | 52 63% | 1.6k | $31k (exactly $31,184) | Kyoto Video Game Concern |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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