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Should I ship an Alternate-History Tactical game?
Tactical + Alternate History
Of 51 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 121 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $9.3k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.9M, ×12680 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 121 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) |
|---|---|
| Median | $9.3k (exactly $9,291) |
| Top 25% | $79k (exactly $79,147) |
| Top 5% | $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 51 |
| Released games | 216 |
| Announced | 121 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Tactical
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Tactical; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Grand Strategy
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 66% positive over 91,427 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 6 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 121 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Football (American)Strong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + 6DOFFair
- + Word GameFair
- + TypingFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Dynamic NarrationFair
- + Farming SimFair
- + SolitaireFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
Comparable games
Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M 
Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M 
XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M 
HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M 
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV 2020 · $24M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
| | XCOM® 2 | older | $19.99 | 79,998 84% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,974,801) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV | older | $59.99 | 13,086 62% | 393k | $24M (exactly $23,550,874) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Wargame: Red Dragon | older | $29.99 | 15,758 88% | 473k | $14M (exactly $14,177,473) | Eugen Systems |
 | Marauders | · EA older | $29.99 | 13,505 68% | 405k | $12M (exactly $12,150,448) | Small Impact Games |
 | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII | older | $59.99 | 5,828 57% | 175k | $10M (exactly $10,488,652) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator | $19.99 | 13,278 97% | 398k | $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) | Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos | |
 | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE | $59.99 | 3,118 49% | 94k | $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Age of History 3 | $9.99 | 18,102 85% | 543k | $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | '83 | · EA | $29.99 | 1,228 65% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) | Blue Dot Games |
 | KAISERPUNK | $29.99 | 884 71% | 27k | $795k (exactly $795,335) | Overseer Games | |
 | Ratten Reich | $19.99 | 616 40% | 18k | $369k (exactly $369,415) | METALLADLERSTUDIO | |
 | AfterWar | $34.99 | 139 72% | 4.2k | $146k (exactly $145,908) | Dmytro Lumen | |
 | Defender of the Crown: The Legend Returns | $19.99 | 216 66% | 6.5k | $130k (exactly $129,535) | Black Tower Basement |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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