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Should I ship an Alternate-History City Builder?
City Builder + Alternate History
Only 17 developers shipped an Alternate-History City Builder in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sid Meier's Civilization VII, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $150k, ×232 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $94M, ×149751 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 50 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.7k (exactly $2,696) |
|---|---|
| Median | $146k (exactly $145,954) |
| Top 25% | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) |
| Top 5% | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 17 |
| Released games | 59 |
| Announced | 50 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- City Builder
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- City Builder; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry 4X, Strategy, Diplomacy
- Price point
- $19.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 64% positive over 81,102 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
City Builder with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelStrong odds
- + LogicFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + RacingLong shot
- + RomePoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + HorrorPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Post-apocalypticPoor odds
Comparable games
Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M 
Victoria 3 2022 · $62M 
HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M 
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M 
Farthest Frontier 2025 · $26M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
| | Victoria 3 | older | $49.99 | 41,251 71% | 1.2M | $62M (exactly $61,864,125) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
| | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
 | Empires of the Undergrowth | older | $29.99 | 17,483 94% | 524k | $16M (exactly $15,729,455) | Slug Disco |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition | $49.99 | 2,141 68% | 64k | $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) | Oxide Games | |
 | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games | |
 | Sword and Fairy Inn 2 | older | $19.99 | 2,013 49% | 60k | $1.2M (exactly $1,207,196) | SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT |
 | Worshippers of Cthulhu | $24.99 | 1,305 80% | 39k | $978k (exactly $978,358) | Crazy Goat Games | |
 | KAISERPUNK | $29.99 | 884 71% | 27k | $795k (exactly $795,335) | Overseer Games | |
 | Surviving the Abyss | $19.99 | 1,044 64% | 31k | $626k (exactly $626,087) | Rocket Flair Studios | |
 | The Succession of Changing Kings | $9.99 | 487 86% | 15k | $146k (exactly $145,954) | KwaKwaGames | |
 | Aztecs: The Last Sun | $19.99 | 99 62% | 3.0k | $59k (exactly $59,370) | Play2Chill S.A. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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