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Should I ship an Alternate-History Card Game?
Card Game + Alternate History
Only 13 developers shipped an Alternate-History Card Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sanatorium - A Mental Asylum Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×7.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $81k, ×129 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 52 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $179 (exactly $179) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,918) |
| Top 25% | $9.4k (exactly $9,444) |
| Top 5% | $81k (exactly $81,058) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 55 |
| Announced | 52 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Card Game
- effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Card Game
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 66% positive over 506 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SteampunkFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + Inventory ManagementFair
- + DogsFair
- + MahjongFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + Board GameFair
- + PuzzleFair
- + Dating SimPoor odds
Comparable games
Card Shark 2022 · $1.8M 
Sovereign Syndicate 2024 · $344k 
Unmatched: Digital Edition 2023 · $189k 
The Political Machine 2024 2024 · $153k 
Artist Life Simulator 2022 · $104k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Card Shark | older | $19.99 | 2,965 90% | 89k | $1.8M (exactly $1,778,110) | Nerial |
| | Sovereign Syndicate | older | $19.99 | 573 79% | 17k | $344k (exactly $343,628) | Crimson Herring Studios |
| | Unmatched: Digital Edition | older | $22.99 | 274 74% | 8.2k | $189k (exactly $188,978) | Dire Wolf |
| | The Political Machine 2024 | older | $19.99 | 255 74% | 7.7k | $153k (exactly $152,924) | Stardock Entertainment |
| | Artist Life Simulator | older | $19.99 | 173 79% | 5.2k | $104k (exactly $103,748) | Interactive Fate |
 | Sanatorium - A Mental Asylum Simulator | $12.99 | 208 59% | 6.2k | $81k (exactly $81,058) | Zeitglas | |
 | Fantasy of Caocao 2 | older | $8.99 | 290 83% | 8.7k | $78k (exactly $78,213) | 桑尼游戏(Sunny Game) |
 | Third Front: WWII | older | $7.99 | 314 59% | 9.4k | $75k (exactly $75,266) | Hamsters Gaming |
 | Last Day of Rome | older | $11.99 | 162 49% | 4.9k | $58k (exactly $58,271) | Hamsters |
 | Ultimate Hero | $9.99 | 184 65% | 5.5k | $55k (exactly $55,145) | Fishwharf | |
 | Vinecard | $9.99 | 42 95% | 1.3k | $13k (exactly $12,587) | SiriusStudio | |
 | Millennium Strategy | $14.99 | 21 85% | 630 | $9.4k (exactly $9,444) | MiMo Games | |
 | The Midnight Crimes | $10.99 | 20 60% | 600 | $6.6k (exactly $6,594) | DeadlyCrow Games | |
 | LYMBUS | $9.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $3.3k (exactly $3,297) | Happy Accident Studios | |
 | Vox Populi: Germany 2025 | $7.99 | 8 87% | 240 | $1.9k (exactly $1,918) | Velsin | |
 | Legacy of Ancestors | · EA | $6.99 | 6 33% | 180 | $1.3k (exactly $1,258) | 命运测试 |
 | Devour the Elixir | $1.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $239 (exactly $239) | 泉游工作室 | |
 | KingdomScape | $2.99 | 2 0% | 60 | $179 (exactly $179) | NookCrew |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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