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Should I ship an Alternate-History Immersive Sim?
Immersive Sim + Alternate History
Of 41 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 111 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $7.9M, ×5316 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 111 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $898 (exactly $898) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) |
| Top 25% | $59k (exactly $59,370) |
| Top 5% | $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 41 |
| Released games | 154 |
| Announced | 111 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Immersive Sim
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Immersive Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Economy
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 75,284 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 111 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Trading Card GameStrong odds
- + MinigamesStrong odds
- + WesternStrong odds
- + BoxingStrong odds
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + RomanceFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Split ScreenFair
Comparable games
Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M 
BioShock™ Remastered 2016 · $31M 
Farthest Frontier 2025 · $26M 
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV 2020 · $24M 
BioShock™ 2007 · $15M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
| | BioShock™ Remastered | older | $19.99 | 52,500 83% | 1.6M | $31M (exactly $31,484,250) | 2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel… (2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel, Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
| | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
| | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV | older | $59.99 | 13,086 62% | 393k | $24M (exactly $23,550,874) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
| | BioShock™ | older | $19.99 | 25,188 93% | 756k | $15M (exactly $15,105,244) | 2K Boston, 2K Australia |
 | BioShock™ 2 Remastered | older | $19.99 | 24,316 72% | 729k | $15M (exactly $14,582,305) | 2K Marin, 2K China, Digital Extremes, 2… (2K Marin, 2K China, Digital Extremes, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel, Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
 | Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII | older | $59.99 | 5,828 57% | 175k | $10M (exactly $10,488,652) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator | $19.99 | 13,278 97% | 398k | $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) | Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos | |
 | Gunner, HEAT, PC! | · EA older | $29.99 | 7,603 91% | 228k | $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) | Radian Simulations LLC |
 | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE | $59.99 | 3,118 49% | 94k | $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Project Silverfish | · EA | $29.99 | 3,138 93% | 94k | $2.8M (exactly $2,823,259) | Siris Pendrake |
 | The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth | $19.99 | 2,564 91% | 77k | $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) | 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室 | |
 | FACEMINER | $7.99 | 1,517 90% | 46k | $364k (exactly $363,625) | Wristwork | |
 | A Bumpy Ride | $14.99 | 569 97% | 17k | $256k (exactly $255,879) | Cosmoporium Games | |
 | Thick As Thieves | $4.99 | 1,106 65% | 33k | $166k (exactly $165,568) | OtherSide Entertainment | |
 | City 20 | · EA | $19.99 | 197 72% | 5.9k | $118k (exactly $118,141) | Untold Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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