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Should I ship an Alternate-History Open World game?
Open World + Alternate History
Of 37 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $8.2k, ×5.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×2342 the market median. Revenue is up 145% on the market; 106 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) |
|---|---|
| Median | $8.2k (exactly $8,150) |
| Top 25% | $118k (exactly $118,141) |
| Top 5% | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 37 |
| Released games | 167 |
| Announced | 106 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 145% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Adventure, Action
- Price point
- $12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 158,705 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 7 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M 
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M 
Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M 
Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus 2017 · $42M 
Assassin's Creed 2 2010 · $35M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
| | Atomic Heart | older | $59.99 | 41,690 81% | 1.3M | $75M (exactly $75,029,493) | Mundfish |
| | Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus | older | $39.99 | 35,277 81% | 1.1M | $42M (exactly $42,321,817) | MachineGames |
| | Assassin's Creed 2 | older | $19.99 | 57,661 89% | 1.7M | $35M (exactly $34,579,302) | Ubisoft Montreal |
 | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
 | Imperator: Rome | older | $39.99 | 19,492 65% | 585k | $23M (exactly $23,384,552) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Assassin's Creed® III Remastered | older | $39.99 | 14,646 63% | 439k | $18M (exactly $17,570,806) | Ubisoft Entertainment |
 | Empires of the Undergrowth | older | $29.99 | 17,483 94% | 524k | $16M (exactly $15,729,455) | Slug Disco |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Project Silverfish | · EA | $29.99 | 3,138 93% | 94k | $2.8M (exactly $2,823,259) | Siris Pendrake |
 | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games | |
 | Age of History 2: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 2,600 83% | 78k | $779k (exactly $779,220) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | 1666: Amsterdam | · EA | $29.99 | 784 63% | 24k | $705k (exactly $705,365) | Panache Digital Games |
 | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software | |
 | Deliver At All Costs | $29.99 | 320 73% | 9.6k | $288k (exactly $287,904) | Studio Far Out Games | |
 | Polylithic | $14.99 | 278 71% | 8.3k | $125k (exactly $125,017) | polyperfect | |
 | City 20 | · EA | $19.99 | 197 72% | 5.9k | $118k (exactly $118,141) | Untold Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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