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Should I ship an Alternate-History Collectathon game?
Collectathon + Alternate History
Only 8 developers shipped an Alternate-History Collectathon game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Digimon Story Time Stranger, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $33M, ×52977 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 21 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $180 (exactly $180) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.6k (exactly $2,637) |
| Top 25% | $88k (exactly $88,072) |
| Top 5% | $33M (exactly $33,269,746) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 8 |
| Released games | 28 |
| Announced | 21 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Collectathon
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Collectathon
- Price point
- $7.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 19,838 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorStrong odds
- + CapitalismStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + EconomyFair
- + ManagementFair
- + CrimeFair
- + Level EditorFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + SokobanFair
- + MythologyFair
- + UnderwaterFair
- + Combat RacingFair
Comparable games
Digimon Story Time Stranger 2025 · $33M 
A Tower Full of Cats 2024 · $414k 
Rise of the Triad: Ludicrous Edition 2023 · $407k 
Mosaic of the Strange 2025 · $88k 
Treasures of the Aegean 2021 · $49k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Digimon Story Time Stranger | $69.99 | 15,845 89% | 475k | $33M (exactly $33,269,746) | Media.Vision Inc. | |
| | A Tower Full of Cats | older | $5.99 | 2,304 99% | 69k | $414k (exactly $414,029) | Devcats |
| | Rise of the Triad: Ludicrous Edition | older | $19.99 | 678 93% | 20k | $407k (exactly $406,597) | Nightdive Studios, Apogee Software, New… (Nightdive Studios, Apogee Software, New Blood Interactive) |
| | Mosaic of the Strange | $12.99 | 226 92% | 6.8k | $88k (exactly $88,072) | Mark Ffrench | |
| | Treasures of the Aegean | older | $19.99 | 82 86% | 2.5k | $49k (exactly $49,175) | Undercoders |
 | Lower? Higher! | $9.99 | 146 67% | 4.4k | $44k (exactly $43,756) | Unplugged Studio | |
 | Fit For a King | older | $9.99 | 74 94% | 2.2k | $22k (exactly $22,178) | Brent Ellison, Tanya X. Short |
 | AtmaSphere 2 | older | $4.99 | 146 79% | 4.4k | $22k (exactly $21,856) | Mazen Games |
 | My Dictator Stalin Can't Be This Cute ?! | older | $1.49 | 285 92% | 8.6k | $13k (exactly $12,740) | uwucorp |
 | The Legend of Bear-Truck Trucker | older | $4.99 | 52 98% | 1.6k | $7.8k (exactly $7,784) | Captain Games |
 | ErMa (Early Mammal) | $7.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $2.6k (exactly $2,637) | AlmyriganHero | |
 | Alehouse Tavern Simulator | $5.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $180 (exactly $180) | COOL DEVS S.R.L. | |
 | A Sea of Grey & Green | $5.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $180 (exactly $180) | Gruffers Studio | |
 | Sputnik | $1.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Kelobyte Oy | |
 | Moonlite - 1975 | · EA | $2.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | TMWFA |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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