Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Alternate History
Should I ship an Alternate-History Sandbox?
Sandbox + Alternate History
Of 39 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 105 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $32k, ×51 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×5586 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 105 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.6k (exactly $2,637) |
|---|---|
| Median | $32k (exactly $32,202) |
| Top 25% | $187k (exactly $186,666) |
| Top 5% | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 39 |
| Released games | 134 |
| Announced | 105 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Economy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 24,971 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 5 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 105 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Victoria 3 2022 · $62M 
Assassin's Creed 2 2010 · $35M 
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Victoria 3 | older | $49.99 | 41,251 71% | 1.2M | $62M (exactly $61,864,125) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Assassin's Creed 2 | older | $19.99 | 57,661 89% | 1.7M | $35M (exactly $34,579,302) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
 | Imperator: Rome | older | $39.99 | 19,492 65% | 585k | $23M (exactly $23,384,552) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Empires of the Undergrowth | older | $29.99 | 17,483 94% | 524k | $16M (exactly $15,729,455) | Slug Disco |
 | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | Victoria II | older | $19.99 | 16,504 92% | 495k | $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Age of History II | older | $5.99 | 47,614 89% | 1.4M | $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) | Łukasz Jakowski |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Project Silverfish | · EA | $29.99 | 3,138 93% | 94k | $2.8M (exactly $2,823,259) | Siris Pendrake |
 | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games | |
 | Worshippers of Cthulhu | $24.99 | 1,305 80% | 39k | $978k (exactly $978,358) | Crazy Goat Games | |
 | KAISERPUNK | $29.99 | 884 71% | 27k | $795k (exactly $795,335) | Overseer Games | |
 | Age of History 2: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 2,600 83% | 78k | $779k (exactly $779,220) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | Deliver At All Costs | $29.99 | 320 73% | 9.6k | $288k (exactly $287,904) | Studio Far Out Games | |
 | Doodle Empires | · EA | $6.99 | 1,279 92% | 38k | $268k (exactly $268,206) | Turtle Stack Games |
 | Warnament | $12.99 | 479 84% | 14k | $187k (exactly $186,666) | Luden.io |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.