Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History 4X?

4X + Alternate History

Of 21 developers who shipped an Alternate-History 4X in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $61k, ×40 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $45M, ×30459 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 36 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 40.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 36 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4X + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16M → $3.5M → $54k → $90k (still earning) → $55k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4X + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $7.6k (exactly $7,555)
Median $61k (exactly $60,570)
Top 25% $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858)
Top 5% $46M (exactly $45,627,794)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 59
Announced 36
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $15.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 220% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

4X
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
4X; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Economy, Strategy, Diplomacy
Price point
$15.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $15.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 112,962 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.6k, median $61k, 1 in 4 over $3.2M, 1 in 20 over $45M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.6k. 4 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4X with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  2. + Colony SimPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxPoor odds36 devs · median $193k · 76 announced
  5. + DiplomacyPoor odds29 devs · median $86k · 79 announced
  6. + SurvivalPoor odds21 devs · median $72k · 40 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds49 devs · median $61k · 75 announced
  8. + RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  9. + BuildingPoor odds52 devs · median $34k · 112 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $34k · 21 announced
  11. + Strategy RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced
  12. + City BuilderPoor odds43 devs · median $29k · 71 announced

All 63 pairs on the 4X page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic older $39.99 24,825 91% 745k $30M (exactly $29,782,552) 3Division
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Empires of the Undergrowth older $29.99 17,483 94% 524k $16M (exactly $15,729,455) Slug Disco
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
Old World older $39.99 6,002 82% 180k $7.2M (exactly $7,200,599) Mohawk Games
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun
Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition $49.99 2,141 68% 64k $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) Oxide Games
Heart of the Machine $29.99 2,010 91% 60k $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) Arcen Games
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
SandTable War: Three Kingdoms $9.99 301 84% 9.0k $90k (exactly $90,210) 古玩工作室
Three Kingdoms : Alias · EA $7.99 359 79% 11k $86k (exactly $86,052) Plotrick

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.