Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Souls-like?

Souls-like + Alternate History

Only 11 developers shipped an Alternate-History Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Crimson Oath, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×225 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 29 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $299 → $6.4k → $450 → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,973)
Top 25% $6.4k (exactly $6,369)
Top 5% $337k (exactly $337,275)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 37
Announced 29
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 948 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $6.3k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Steelrising older $49.99 4,568 73% 137k $6.9M (exactly $6,850,630) Spiders
Flintlock: The Siege of Dawn older $39.99 1,362 75% 41k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,991) A44 Games
Hunt Down The Freeman older $9.99 3,785 54% 114k $1.1M (exactly $1,134,364) Royal Rudius Entertainment
Crimson Oath $14.99 750 82% 23k $337k (exactly $337,275) Parry Frames Team
Pharaonic older $14.99 247 77% 7.4k $111k (exactly $111,076) Milkstone Studios
Liberte older $19.99 152 63% 4.6k $91k (exactly $91,154) Superstatic
SEX with HITLER: WW2 older $3.99 291 76% 8.7k $35k (exactly $34,833) Adolf Games
Whitestone older $19.99 19 84% 570 $11k (exactly $11,394) Hailstorm Games
Italian Brainrot: In Prison $4.99 64 81% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) ShLeks, Hero
Los Penguinos older $4.99 57 80% 1.7k $8.5k (exactly $8,533) Hero, ShLeks
DEAD DAYLIGHT $2.99 71 88% 2.1k $6.4k (exactly $6,369) KARMIU
三国仁义传 The Righteousness: SanGuo $5.99 13 92% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) 硕狗累累工作室(HarvestDog)
Redhelm Dynasty $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Tirazis
The Book of Aaru $2.99 22 86% 660 $2.0k (exactly $1,973) Amenti Studio
DarkShine · EA $3.00 5 100% 150 $450 (exactly $450) DScorp
Aeonic $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) dev
Tale of Dark Light $0.99 7 42% 210 $208 (exactly $208) PSP之魂
POTUS vs. The World! $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) F.a. Forge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.