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Should I ship an Alternate-History Simulation game?
Simulation + Alternate History
Of 179 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 318 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $970k, ×1558 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 318 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $418 (exactly $418) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.0k (exactly $2,960) |
| Top 25% | $54k (exactly $53,978) |
| Top 5% | $978k (exactly $978,358) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 179 |
| Released games | 556 |
| Announced | 318 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Economy, Grand Strategy
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 64% positive over 104,921 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 98 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 318 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M 
Victoria 3 2022 · $62M 
Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
| | Victoria 3 | older | $49.99 | 41,251 71% | 1.2M | $62M (exactly $61,864,125) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
 | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
 | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV | older | $59.99 | 13,086 62% | 393k | $24M (exactly $23,550,874) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Imperator: Rome | older | $39.99 | 19,492 65% | 585k | $23M (exactly $23,384,552) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Empires of the Undergrowth | older | $29.99 | 17,483 94% | 524k | $16M (exactly $15,729,455) | Slug Disco |
 | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator | $19.99 | 13,278 97% | 398k | $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) | Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos | |
 | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE | $59.99 | 3,118 49% | 94k | $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games | |
 | '83 | · EA | $29.99 | 1,228 65% | 37k | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) | Blue Dot Games |
 | Worshippers of Cthulhu | $24.99 | 1,305 80% | 39k | $978k (exactly $978,358) | Crazy Goat Games | |
 | KAISERPUNK | $29.99 | 884 71% | 27k | $795k (exactly $795,335) | Overseer Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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