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Should I ship an Alternate-History Diplomacy game?
Diplomacy + Alternate History
Of 30 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Diplomacy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $79k, ×126 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $45M, ×72656 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 48 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
|---|---|
| Median | $79k (exactly $79,147) |
| Top 25% | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) |
| Top 5% | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 30 |
| Released games | 120 |
| Announced | 48 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Diplomacy
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Diplomacy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Grand Strategy, Strategy, 4X
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 64% positive over 111,548 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 4 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Diplomacy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + Space SimLong shot
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + PvPPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + City BuilderPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
Comparable games
Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M 
Victoria 3 2022 · $62M 
Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
| | Victoria 3 | older | $49.99 | 41,251 71% | 1.2M | $62M (exactly $61,864,125) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
 | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
 | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV | older | $59.99 | 13,086 62% | 393k | $24M (exactly $23,550,874) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Empires of the Undergrowth | older | $29.99 | 17,483 94% | 524k | $16M (exactly $15,729,455) | Slug Disco |
 | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII | older | $59.99 | 5,828 57% | 175k | $10M (exactly $10,488,652) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE | $59.99 | 3,118 49% | 94k | $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Age of History 3 | $9.99 | 18,102 85% | 543k | $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition | $49.99 | 2,141 68% | 64k | $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) | Oxide Games | |
 | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games | |
 | Age of History 2: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 2,600 83% | 78k | $779k (exactly $779,220) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | Warnament | $12.99 | 479 84% | 14k | $187k (exactly $186,666) | Luden.io |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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