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Should I ship an Alternate-History Tactical RPG?
Tactical RPG + Alternate History
Of 21 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×206 the market median. Revenue is up 3285% on the market; 64 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.8k (exactly $3,838) |
| Top 25% | $29k (exactly $29,495) |
| Top 5% | $129k (exactly $129,132) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 74 |
| Announced | 64 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3285% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Tactical RPG
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Tactical RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, RPG
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 1,494 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. All of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + Space SimFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + RobotsPoor odds
- + RomancePoor odds
- + WarPoor odds
Comparable games
Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery 2024 · $3.6M 
江湖十一 2023 · $2.9M 
The Lamplighters League 2023 · $1.1M 
Pathway 2019 · $915k 
Strategic Mind: Blitzkrieg 2020 · $530k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery | older | $24.99 | 4,861 78% | 146k | $3.6M (exactly $3,644,292) | Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co.… (Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co., Ltd.) |
| | 江湖十一 | older | $17.99 | 5,385 42% | 162k | $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) | 万象皆春 |
| | The Lamplighters League | older | $49.99 | 726 71% | 22k | $1.1M (exactly $1,088,782) | Harebrained Schemes |
| | Pathway | older | $15.99 | 1,908 76% | 57k | $915k (exactly $915,268) | Robotality |
| | Strategic Mind: Blitzkrieg | older | $39.99 | 442 84% | 13k | $530k (exactly $530,267) | Starni Games |
 | Strategic Mind: The Pacific | older | $29.99 | 538 74% | 16k | $484k (exactly $484,039) | Starni Games |
 | Broken Lines | older | $24.99 | 604 76% | 18k | $453k (exactly $452,819) | BirdIsland/PortaPlay |
 | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games | |
 | Tales Of Glory | older | $10.99 | 1,042 80% | 31k | $344k (exactly $343,547) | BlackTale Games |
 | Earthling's Undertaking | older | $10.99 | 930 64% | 28k | $307k (exactly $306,621) | Current Games |
 | Requiem of Reuinis | $11.99 | 359 91% | 11k | $129k (exactly $129,132) | Zaxiquej, Otogen Studio | |
 | Water Margin Scrolls | $9.99 | 244 40% | 7.3k | $73k (exactly $73,127) | QingHe Games | |
 | Deadrock Redemption 2 | $14.99 | 123 86% | 3.7k | $55k (exactly $55,313) | Entropy Digital Entertainment | |
 | Headquarters: Cold War | $29.99 | 37 64% | 1.1k | $33k (exactly $33,289) | Starni Games | |
 | Danmo Three Kingdoms: Battle of Wits | $11.99 | 82 76% | 2.5k | $29k (exactly $29,495) | 墨春秋 | |
 | Wings of Empire | · EA | $14.99 | 49 87% | 1.5k | $22k (exactly $22,035) | Droid Productions |
 | NovaMundi | $12.99 | 38 81% | 1.1k | $15k (exactly $14,809) | Slashware Interactive | |
 | Demonslayer AKA Me | $7.99 | 34 73% | 1.0k | $8.2k (exactly $8,150) | 晶尘工作室 | |
 | Reptilian Rising | $29.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $6.3k (exactly $6,298) | Gregarious Games, Robot Circus, Hyper L… (Gregarious Games, Robot Circus, Hyper Luminal Games) |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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