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Should I ship an Alternate-History Management game?
Management + Alternate History
Of 66 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 142 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5113 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 142 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $657 (exactly $657) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.3k (exactly $2,336) |
| Top 25% | $101k (exactly $100,543) |
| Top 5% | $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 66 |
| Released games | 186 |
| Announced | 142 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Management
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Management; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Economy, Simulation
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 46,910 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $660. 6 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 142 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Management with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RomeFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + WesternFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + JRPGFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + UnderwaterFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + DwarvesFair
- + 3D FighterFair
- + IncrementalFair
Comparable games
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Victoria 3 2022 · $62M 
HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M 
Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024 · $30M 
Farthest Frontier 2025 · $26M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Victoria 3 | older | $49.99 | 41,251 71% | 1.2M | $62M (exactly $61,864,125) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic | older | $39.99 | 24,825 91% | 745k | $30M (exactly $29,782,552) | 3Division |
| | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
 | Imperator: Rome | older | $39.99 | 19,492 65% | 585k | $23M (exactly $23,384,552) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Empires of the Undergrowth | older | $29.99 | 17,483 94% | 524k | $16M (exactly $15,729,455) | Slug Disco |
 | Terra Invicta | $39.99 | 9,057 80% | 272k | $11M (exactly $10,865,683) | Pavonis Interactive | |
 | Victoria II | older | $19.99 | 16,504 92% | 495k | $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Not For Broadcast | older | $24.99 | 10,337 94% | 310k | $7.7M (exactly $7,749,649) | NotGames |
 | Cataclismo | $29.99 | 3,899 88% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) | Digital Sun | |
 | Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition | $49.99 | 2,141 68% | 64k | $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) | Oxide Games | |
 | Heart of the Machine | $29.99 | 2,010 91% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,808,397) | Arcen Games | |
 | Worshippers of Cthulhu | $24.99 | 1,305 80% | 39k | $978k (exactly $978,358) | Crazy Goat Games | |
 | KAISERPUNK | $29.99 | 884 71% | 27k | $795k (exactly $795,335) | Overseer Games | |
 | Surviving the Abyss | $19.99 | 1,044 64% | 31k | $626k (exactly $626,087) | Rocket Flair Studios | |
 | FACEMINER | $7.99 | 1,517 90% | 46k | $364k (exactly $363,625) | Wristwork | |
 | Solar Nations 2 | · EA | $14.99 | 609 85% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | Flomgus Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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