Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Alternate History

Only 18 developers shipped an Alternate-History Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sexy Iron Maidens, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $18k, ×29 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 49 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 49 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $657 → $742 → $1.7k → $1.4k → $2.0k → $359 → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,973)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $3,957)
Top 5% $18k (exactly $18,413)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 61
Announced 49
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Top-Down Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 319 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $3.9k, 1 in 20 over $18k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tunguska: The Visitation - Final Cut older $14.99 1,682 87% 50k $756k (exactly $756,395) Rotorist Workshop
SEX with HITLER older $6.99 3,358 81% 101k $704k (exactly $704,173) Adolf Games
BDSM: Big Drunk Satanic Massacre older $19.99 1,114 87% 33k $668k (exactly $668,066) Big Way Games
Multi Turret Academy · EA older $8.99 1,778 95% 53k $480k (exactly $479,527) Yulia Games
Titan Attacks! older $9.99 654 92% 20k $196k (exactly $196,004) Puppygames
Get To Work, Succubus-Chan! older $9.99 480 78% 14k $144k (exactly $143,856) SmallSqurriel, Eternal Alice Game
Gem Defender: Soyjak Survivors older $3.99 1,045 94% 31k $125k (exactly $125,086) Coby Dox, Chudd Howard
Journey to the West Survivor older $5.99 379 78% 11k $68k (exactly $68,106) Buding Games
Aces of the Luftwaffe - Squadron older $14.99 94 74% 2.8k $42k (exactly $42,272) HandyGames
Captain Forever Trilogy older $9.99 139 86% 4.2k $42k (exactly $41,658) Farbs
Sexy Iron Maidens $4.99 123 69% 3.7k $18k (exactly $18,413) Earl Marx
When the Light Dies $4.99 80 71% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,976) Electric Monkeys, Secret Level Studios
Pact of Steel $14.99 12 83% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Steel Potato Games LLC
Under a Desert Sun: Seekers of the Cursed Vessel · EA $24.99 6 100% 180 $4.5k (exactly $4,498) Revolving Gear Studios
Knights In A Different SpaceTime $11.99 11 100% 330 $4.0k (exactly $3,957) Destreon Games
LYMBUS $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Happy Accident Studios
Territorial Conquest $4.99 22 50% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Uğur CAN
Kamikaze Survivors $9.99 9 77% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) DaboSoft
Sakamoto Dangerous Barrage $2.99 22 100% 660 $2.0k (exactly $1,973) Retsu Teikoku
Front Lines $1.99 23 60% 690 $1.4k (exactly $1,373) Waterfoul Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.