Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History game?

Alternate History

Of 532 developers who shipped an Alternate-History game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,252 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×997 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,252 games are announced against 303 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,252 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 532
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.0k → $2.4k → $7.5k → $2.4k → $3.6k → $1.2k → $1.3k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 532
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,413)
Top 5% $626k (exactly $626,087)
Developers, 2 yr 532
Released games 1,837
Announced 1,252
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 307,674 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 310 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,252 games are announced against 303 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Alternate History

111 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Exploration + Alternate History Poor odds $1.9k 150 devs
  2. Choices Matter + Alternate History Poor odds $1.9k 116 devs
  3. Multiple Endings + Alternate History Poor odds $1.9k 106 devs
  4. Action-Adventure + Alternate History Poor odds $1.9k 87 devs
  5. Visual Novel + Alternate History Poor odds $1.8k 92 devs
  6. FPS + Alternate History Poor odds $1.8k 42 devs
  7. Walking Simulator + Alternate History Poor odds $1.8k 28 devs
  8. Inventory Management + Alternate History Poor odds $1.7k 7 devs
  9. Automation + Alternate History Poor odds $1.7k 15 devs
  10. Combat + Alternate History Poor odds $1.6k 72 devs
  11. Choose Your Own Adventure + Alternate History Poor odds $1.6k 68 devs
  12. Time Management + Alternate History Poor odds $1.5k 32 devs
  13. Adventure + Alternate History Poor odds $1.4k 230 devs
  14. Dynamic Narration + Alternate History Poor odds $1.4k 11 devs
  15. Political Sim + Alternate History Poor odds $1.4k 49 devs
  16. Shooter + Alternate History Poor odds $1.4k 64 devs
  17. Physics + Alternate History Poor odds $1.4k 22 devs
  18. Action + Alternate History Poor odds $1.3k 171 devs
  19. Investigation + Alternate History Poor odds $1.3k 33 devs
  20. Logic + Alternate History Poor odds $1.3k 24 devs
  21. Strategy RPG + Alternate History Poor odds $1.3k 40 devs
  22. Driving + Alternate History Poor odds $1.3k 10 devs
  23. Life Sim + Alternate History Poor odds $1.2k 18 devs
  24. Survival Horror + Alternate History Poor odds $1.2k 23 devs
  25. Dungeon Crawler + Alternate History Poor odds $1.1k 23 devs
  26. Interactive Fiction + Alternate History Poor odds $1.1k 76 devs
  27. Roguelite + Alternate History Poor odds $1.0k 44 devs
  28. Stealth + Alternate History Poor odds $1.0k 19 devs
  29. Idler + Alternate History Poor odds $898 25 devs
  30. PvE + Alternate History Poor odds $897 51 devs
  31. 2D Platformer + Alternate History Poor odds $657 30 devs
  32. Character Customization + Alternate History Poor odds $599 25 devs
  33. Loot + Alternate History Poor odds $599 13 devs
  34. Bullet Hell + Alternate History Poor odds $564 24 devs
  35. CRPG + Alternate History Poor odds $450 15 devs
  36. Swordplay + Alternate History Poor odds $450 12 devs
  37. Action Roguelike + Alternate History Poor odds $449 33 devs
  38. Hidden Object + Alternate History Poor odds $416 26 devs
  39. Word Game + Alternate History Poor odds $240 19 devs
  40. Turn-Based + Alternate History Dead $187k 5 devs
  41. Level Editor + Alternate History Dead $33k 8 devs
  42. Real-Time with Pause + Alternate History Dead $22k 8 devs
  43. FMV + Alternate History Dead $9.5k 7 devs
  44. Card Battler + Alternate History Dead $9.4k 7 devs
  45. Destruction + Alternate History Dead $5.8k 6 devs
  46. Tanks + Alternate History Dead $5.4k 6 devs
  47. Perma Death + Alternate History Dead $1.2k 13 devs
  48. Racing + Alternate History Dead $719 8 devs
  49. Vehicular Combat + Alternate History Dead $719 7 devs
  50. Arena Shooter + Alternate History Dead $599 10 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M The Outlast Trials 2024 · $109M BioShock Infinite 2013 · $99M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
The Outlast Trials older $39.99 90,997 92% 2.7M $109M (exactly $109,169,101) Red Barrels
BioShock Infinite older $29.99 109,718 93% 3.3M $99M (exactly $98,713,285) Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (… (Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
REPLACED $19.99 9,130 84% 274k $5.5M (exactly $5,475,261) Sad Cat Studios
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.