Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Physics game?

Physics + Alternate History

Of 22 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×588 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 46 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 46 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $26k → $178 → $1.3k → $240 → $21k → $3.3k → $1.4k (still earning) → $52k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,373)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $51,782)
Top 5% $369k (exactly $369,415)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 69
Announced 46
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 15,380 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $51k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator 2026 · $8.0M Sprocket 2021 · EA · $7.4M Mars Horizon 2020 · $1.7M Arms Trade Tycoon: Tanks 2024 · EA · $900k Ratten Reich 2025 · $369k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
Mars Horizon older $19.99 2,757 84% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,653,373) Auroch Digital
Arms Trade Tycoon: Tanks · EA older $29.99 1,000 65% 30k $900k (exactly $899,700) FunGi
Ratten Reich $19.99 616 40% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) METALLADLERSTUDIO
Deliver At All Costs $29.99 320 73% 9.6k $288k (exactly $287,904) Studio Far Out Games
Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate $49.99 149 62% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) Mighty Eyes
Aggressor · EA older $19.99 172 61% 5.2k $103k (exactly $103,148) Flashpoint Studios
macdows 95 older $4.99 520 92% 16k $78k (exactly $77,844) Yunus Ayyildiz
iDigging $2.99 729 69% 22k $65k (exactly $65,391) TWEN
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala
Into The Darkness VR · EA $19.99 35 37% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,990) Cosmos Games, 9 lives
Maelstrom: The Battle for Earth Begins Enhanced $6.99 33 75% 990 $6.9k (exactly $6,920) KDV Games
Unto the Aurora $4.99 22 86% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Arboreta Games
The Last Delivery Man On Earth $7.99 6 83% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Rebind

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.