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Should I ship an Alternate-History Interactive Fiction?
Interactive Fiction + Alternate History
Of 76 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 147 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×163 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 147 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $358 (exactly $358) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.1k (exactly $1,075) |
| Top 25% | $9.0k (exactly $8,994) |
| Top 5% | $103k (exactly $102,549) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 76 |
| Released games | 230 |
| Announced | 147 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Interactive Fiction
- effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Interactive Fiction; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Choose Your Own Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 5,685 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 147 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVFair
- + Match 3Fair
- + VampiresFair
- + SportsFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + PiratesFair
- + DrivingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + Board GameFair
- + SnowFair
- + BuildingFair
Comparable games
A Plague Tale: Requiem 2022 · $31M 
Not For Broadcast 2022 · $7.7M 
Suzerain 2020 · $6.3M 
Hypnospace Outlaw 2019 · $2.9M 
Card Shark 2022 · $1.8M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | A Plague Tale: Requiem | older | $49.99 | 20,797 90% | 624k | $31M (exactly $31,189,261) | Asobo Studio |
| | Not For Broadcast | older | $24.99 | 10,337 94% | 310k | $7.7M (exactly $7,749,649) | NotGames |
| | Suzerain | older | $19.99 | 10,574 92% | 317k | $6.3M (exactly $6,341,228) | Torpor Games |
| | Hypnospace Outlaw | older | $19.99 | 4,824 96% | 145k | $2.9M (exactly $2,892,953) | Tendershoot, Michael Lasch, ThatWhichIs… (Tendershoot, Michael Lasch, ThatWhichIs Media) |
| | Card Shark | older | $19.99 | 2,965 90% | 89k | $1.8M (exactly $1,778,110) | Nerial |
 | The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth | $19.99 | 2,564 91% | 77k | $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) | 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室 | |
 | Slaves of Rome | older | $24.99 | 1,924 73% | 58k | $1.4M (exactly $1,442,423) | Biggus Diccus Games |
 | Home Safety Hotline | older | $14.99 | 2,763 90% | 83k | $1.2M (exactly $1,242,521) | Night Signal Entertainment |
 | 风信楼 | older | $11.99 | 3,423 94% | 103k | $1.2M (exactly $1,231,253) | Pingfang Games |
 | Vampires' Melody | older | $3.99 | 5,559 97% | 167k | $665k (exactly $665,412) | AsicxArt |
 | TR-49 | $6.99 | 1,197 94% | 36k | $251k (exactly $251,011) | inkle Ltd | |
 | Rosewater | $19.99 | 348 91% | 10k | $209k (exactly $208,696) | Grundislav Games | |
 | Duskpunk | $19.99 | 171 91% | 5.1k | $103k (exactly $102,549) | Clockwork Bird, James Patton | |
 | Pyramids and Aliens: Escape Room | $12.99 | 191 81% | 5.7k | $74k (exactly $74,433) | mc2games | |
 | The World Well: Blood of Caro | $11.99 | 205 85% | 6.2k | $74k (exactly $73,738) | Nimparth | |
 | Late Ming: Reborn in Flames | · EA | $4.00 | 519 55% | 16k | $62k (exactly $62,280) | AladdinBatu |
 | Time Space Rebuild | $4.99 | 377 76% | 11k | $56k (exactly $56,437) | INNOVATION DREAM | |
 | I.T. Never Ends | $12.99 | 64 98% | 1.9k | $25k (exactly $24,941) | Dadbod Games | |
 | Wings of Empire | · EA | $14.99 | 49 87% | 1.5k | $22k (exactly $22,035) | Droid Productions |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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