Games › Adventure › Adventure + Alternate History
Should I ship an Alternate-History Adventure game?
Adventure + Alternate History
Of 230 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 537 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×622 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 537 games are announced against 128 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,439) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $15,285) |
| Top 5% | $391k (exactly $390,594) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 230 |
| Released games | 820 |
| Announced | 537 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Adventure
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Adventure; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, RPG
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 171,946 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 137 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 537 games are announced against 128 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SamuraiFair
- + FMVFair
- + PinballFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + SportsFair
- + GolfFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Time AttackFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M 
The Outlast Trials 2024 · $109M 
BioShock Infinite 2013 · $99M 
Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M 
Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus 2017 · $42M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
| | The Outlast Trials | older | $39.99 | 90,997 92% | 2.7M | $109M (exactly $109,169,101) | Red Barrels |
| | BioShock Infinite | older | $29.99 | 109,718 93% | 3.3M | $99M (exactly $98,713,285) | Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (… (Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (Linux)) |
| | Atomic Heart | older | $59.99 | 41,690 81% | 1.3M | $75M (exactly $75,029,493) | Mundfish |
| | Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus | older | $39.99 | 35,277 81% | 1.1M | $42M (exactly $42,321,817) | MachineGames |
 | Assassin's Creed 2 | older | $19.99 | 57,661 89% | 1.7M | $35M (exactly $34,579,302) | Ubisoft Montreal |
 | BioShock™ Remastered | older | $19.99 | 52,500 83% | 1.6M | $31M (exactly $31,484,250) | 2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel… (2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel, Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
 | A Plague Tale: Requiem | older | $49.99 | 20,797 90% | 624k | $31M (exactly $31,189,261) | Asobo Studio |
 | Wolfenstein: The New Order | older | $19.99 | 46,443 91% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $27,851,867) | MachineGames |
 | Assassin's Creed® III Remastered | older | $39.99 | 14,646 63% | 439k | $18M (exactly $17,570,806) | Ubisoft Entertainment |
 | REPLACED | $19.99 | 9,130 84% | 274k | $5.5M (exactly $5,475,261) | Sad Cat Studios | |
 | Eriksholm: The Stolen Dream | $39.99 | 2,451 95% | 74k | $2.9M (exactly $2,940,465) | River End Games | |
 | KLETKA | $9.99 | 6,374 90% | 191k | $1.9M (exactly $1,910,288) | Callback, ln404 | |
 | Hail to the Rainbow | $14.99 | 2,533 90% | 76k | $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) | Носков Сергей | |
 | 1666: Amsterdam | · EA | $29.99 | 784 63% | 24k | $705k (exactly $705,365) | Panache Digital Games |
 | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software | |
 | LIZARDS MUST DIE 2 | $9.99 | 2,232 94% | 67k | $669k (exactly $668,930) | the Bratans, Smola Game Studio | |
 | Angeline Era | $24.99 | 650 95% | 20k | $487k (exactly $487,305) | Melos Han-Tani, Marina Kittaka, Analges… (Melos Han-Tani, Marina Kittaka, Analgesic Productions) | |
 | xiuzhen idle | $5.99 | 2,313 79% | 69k | $416k (exactly $415,646) | 游戏养家工作室 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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