Do I ship it?

GamesArena ShooterArena Shooter + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Alternate History

Only 10 developers shipped an Alternate-History Arena Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kvark, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×10.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $600 against a market of $630. 30 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 30 announced, ×10.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $7.4k (exactly $7,431)
Top 5% $276k (exactly $276,462)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 36
Announced 30
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 31%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 83% positive over 656 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $600, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×10.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rise of the Triad: Ludicrous Edition older $19.99 678 93% 20k $407k (exactly $406,597) Nightdive Studios, Apogee Software, New… (Nightdive Studios, Apogee Software, New Blood Interactive)
Kvark $19.99 461 86% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Latest Past, Perun Creative
BEARS, VODKA, BALALAIKA! 🐻 older $3.99 1,680 89% 50k $201k (exactly $201,096) Rabotiagi games
Titan Attacks! older $9.99 654 92% 20k $196k (exactly $196,004) Puppygames
BEAR, VODKA, FALL OF BERLIN! 🐻 older $3.99 389 92% 12k $47k (exactly $46,563) Rabotiagi games
Telefrag VR older $16.99 38 71% 1.1k $19k (exactly $19,369) Anshar Studios
Sexy Iron Maidens $4.99 123 69% 3.7k $18k (exactly $18,413) Earl Marx
USA 2020 older $1.89 244 78% 7.3k $14k (exactly $13,835) GAMES FOR HUMANS
Daisen · EA $7.99 31 93% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) LOYAL Studio
Overdrive Escape · EA older $9.99 20 80% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Orazgylyjov Davut
War of Wheels · EA $14.99 13 100% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Dreambits Studio
OVERDEAD $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) rushandev1
The Island of Thugs $0.99 19 78% 570 $564 (exactly $564) Big Green Platypus
Grand Throw Auto $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Andrew Grbac
Doom Drive $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Berk Kalfa
Vladimir $0.99 4 100% 120 $119 (exactly $119) Miracle scape
Legacy of the Lost:WitchHunter $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Andris Mikijanskis

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.