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Should I ship an Alternate-History FMV?
FMV + Alternate History
Only 7 developers shipped an Alternate-History FMV in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $9.5k against a market of $630. 11 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) |
|---|---|
| Median | $9.5k (exactly $9,524) |
| Top 25% | $369k (exactly $369,415) |
| Top 5% | $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 7 |
| Released games | 33 |
| Announced | 11 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- FMV
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- FMV
- Price point
- $5.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 37,347 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FMV with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SurvivalStrong odds
- + Post-apocalypticStrong odds
- + StrategyStrong odds
- + Multiple EndingsStrong odds
- + Immersive SimStrong odds
- + Choices MatterStrong odds
- + Dating SimStrong odds
- + RomanceStrong odds
- + SimulationStrong odds
- + JRPGStrong odds
- + Visual NovelStrong odds
- + RPGStrong odds
Comparable games
Not For Broadcast 2022 · $7.7M 
Command & Conquer™ Red Alert™ 3 2009 · $3.0M 
The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth 2026 · $1.5M 
Home Safety Hotline 2024 · $1.2M 
Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3 - Uprising 2009 · $955k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Not For Broadcast | older | $24.99 | 10,337 94% | 310k | $7.7M (exactly $7,749,649) | NotGames |
| | Command & Conquer™ Red Alert™ 3 | older | $6.96 | 14,605 85% | 438k | $3.0M (exactly $3,049,524) | EA Los Angeles |
| | The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth | $19.99 | 2,564 91% | 77k | $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) | 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室 | |
| | Home Safety Hotline | older | $14.99 | 2,763 90% | 83k | $1.2M (exactly $1,242,521) | Night Signal Entertainment |
| | Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3 - Uprising | older | $6.96 | 4,572 84% | 137k | $955k (exactly $954,634) | EA Los Angeles |
 | Ratten Reich | $19.99 | 616 40% | 18k | $369k (exactly $369,415) | METALLADLERSTUDIO | |
 | BEAUTIFUL DESOLATION | older | $12.99 | 517 75% | 16k | $201k (exactly $201,475) | THE BROTHERHOOD |
 | Blade Runner: Enhanced Edition | older | $9.99 | 617 74% | 19k | $185k (exactly $184,915) | Nightdive Studios, Westwood Studios |
 | Life Eater | older | $14.99 | 330 86% | 9.9k | $148k (exactly $148,401) | Strange Scaffold |
 | Wishful Journey:Love Across Time | older | $9.99 | 426 88% | 13k | $128k (exactly $127,672) | Hillhouse Holdings Limited |
 | Time Space Rebuild | $4.99 | 377 76% | 11k | $56k (exactly $56,437) | INNOVATION DREAM | |
 | I Know This Place..? (chapter II) | $5.99 | 53 94% | 1.6k | $9.5k (exactly $9,524) | SameFrame | |
 | Dead Silence - Echoes of the Damned | $4.99 | 13 38% | 390 | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) | Persian Dare | |
 | OKeverything with 3000 beauties 2 | $9.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | XIOF FAN, S+TEAMBABA, XU TING | |
 | Half Dead: A Zombie Story Game | $3.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $120 (exactly $120) | Karayel Games, Yeb |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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