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Should I ship an Alternate-History Strategy RPG?
Strategy RPG + Alternate History
Of 40 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 97 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×232 the market median. Revenue is up 860% on the market; 97 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $267 (exactly $267) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,258) |
| Top 25% | $29k (exactly $29,495) |
| Top 5% | $146k (exactly $145,954) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 40 |
| Released games | 120 |
| Announced | 97 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 860% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Strategy RPG
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Strategy RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Turn-Based Strategy, RPG, Simulation
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,430 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 97 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Strategy RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SportsFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + EconomyFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair
- + ConspiracyFair
- + Shop KeeperFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
Comparable games
Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M 
Suzerain 2020 · $6.3M 
NEBULOUS: Fleet Command 2022 · EA · $3.7M 
Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery 2024 · $3.6M 
江湖十一 2023 · $2.9M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Suzerain | older | $19.99 | 10,574 92% | 317k | $6.3M (exactly $6,341,228) | Torpor Games |
| | NEBULOUS: Fleet Command | · EA older | $29.99 | 4,074 81% | 122k | $3.7M (exactly $3,665,378) | Eridanus Industries |
| | Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery | older | $24.99 | 4,861 78% | 146k | $3.6M (exactly $3,644,292) | Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co.… (Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co., Ltd.) |
| | 江湖十一 | older | $17.99 | 5,385 42% | 162k | $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) | 万象皆春 |
 | 再刷一把 PlayAgain | older | $8.99 | 4,416 67% | 132k | $1.2M (exactly $1,190,995) | 滑稽工作室 |
 | The Lamplighters League | older | $49.99 | 726 71% | 22k | $1.1M (exactly $1,088,782) | Harebrained Schemes |
 | Pathway | older | $15.99 | 1,908 76% | 57k | $915k (exactly $915,268) | Robotality |
 | Strategic Mind: Blitzkrieg | older | $39.99 | 442 84% | 13k | $530k (exactly $530,267) | Starni Games |
 | Strategic Mind: The Pacific | older | $29.99 | 538 74% | 16k | $484k (exactly $484,039) | Starni Games |
 | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games | |
 | The Succession of Changing Kings | $9.99 | 487 86% | 15k | $146k (exactly $145,954) | KwaKwaGames | |
 | Defender of the Crown: The Legend Returns | $19.99 | 216 66% | 6.5k | $130k (exactly $129,535) | Black Tower Basement | |
 | Requiem of Reuinis | $11.99 | 359 91% | 11k | $129k (exactly $129,132) | Zaxiquej, Otogen Studio | |
 | Blood Crawler | $12.99 | 279 76% | 8.4k | $109k (exactly $108,726) | c3アート | |
 | TK Punk Gold | $11.99 | 291 87% | 8.7k | $105k (exactly $104,673) | 桑尼游戏(Sunny Game) | |
 | Class of Heroes 3 Remaster | $29.99 | 52 67% | 1.6k | $47k (exactly $46,784) | ACQUIRE Corp., Zerodiv | |
 | Demon Maiden and Slave Summoning | $10.99 | 106 82% | 3.2k | $35k (exactly $34,948) | Sunspot | |
 | Headquarters: Cold War | $29.99 | 37 64% | 1.1k | $33k (exactly $33,289) | Starni Games | |
 | Danmo Three Kingdoms: Battle of Wits | $11.99 | 82 76% | 2.5k | $29k (exactly $29,495) | 墨春秋 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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