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Should I ship an Alternate-History Multiple Endings game?
Multiple Endings + Alternate History
Of 106 developers who shipped an Alternate-History Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 252 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×163 the market median. Revenue is up 185% on the market; 252 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,901) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $13,491) |
| Top 5% | $103k (exactly $102,549) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 106 |
| Released games | 318 |
| Announced | 252 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 185% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Multiple Endings
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Alternate History
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Multiple Endings; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Visual Novel, Simulation
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 5,583 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 60 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 252 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Multiple Endings with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + WuxiaFair
- + Level EditorFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + SuperheroFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + GamblingFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Arena ShooterFair
Comparable games
Not For Broadcast 2022 · $7.7M 
Suzerain 2020 · $6.3M 
Five Nights at Freddy's: Into the Pit 2024 · $6.1M 
Singularity™ 2010 · $4.9M 
Encased: A Sci-Fi Post-Apocalyptic RPG 2021 · $3.8M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Not For Broadcast | older | $24.99 | 10,337 94% | 310k | $7.7M (exactly $7,749,649) | NotGames |
| | Suzerain | older | $19.99 | 10,574 92% | 317k | $6.3M (exactly $6,341,228) | Torpor Games |
| | Five Nights at Freddy's: Into the Pit | older | $19.99 | 10,164 95% | 305k | $6.1M (exactly $6,095,351) | Mega Cat Studios |
| | Singularity™ | older | $29.99 | 5,487 93% | 165k | $4.9M (exactly $4,936,654) | Raven Software |
| | Encased: A Sci-Fi Post-Apocalyptic RPG | older | $29.99 | 4,193 77% | 126k | $3.8M (exactly $3,772,442) | Dark Crystal Games |
 | Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery | older | $24.99 | 4,861 78% | 146k | $3.6M (exactly $3,644,292) | Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co.… (Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co., Ltd.) |
 | Observer: System Redux | older | $29.99 | 2,462 84% | 74k | $2.2M (exactly $2,215,061) | Bloober Team, Anshar Studios |
 | The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth | $19.99 | 2,564 91% | 77k | $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) | 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室 | |
 | Not Tonight | older | $19.99 | 2,220 84% | 67k | $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) | PanicBarn |
 | Home Safety Hotline | older | $14.99 | 2,763 90% | 83k | $1.2M (exactly $1,242,521) | Night Signal Entertainment |
 | Go Home Annie: An SCP Game | $19.99 | 440 79% | 13k | $264k (exactly $263,868) | Misfit Village | |
 | Crisis in the Kremlin: The Cold War | $7.99 | 698 80% | 21k | $167k (exactly $167,311) | Nostalgames | |
 | The Succession of Changing Kings | $9.99 | 487 86% | 15k | $146k (exactly $145,954) | KwaKwaGames | |
 | Kumitantei: Old-School Slaughter | $14.99 | 314 90% | 9.4k | $141k (exactly $141,206) | Mango Factory | |
 | Duskpunk | $19.99 | 171 91% | 5.1k | $103k (exactly $102,549) | Clockwork Bird, James Patton | |
 | Sanatorium - A Mental Asylum Simulator | $12.99 | 208 59% | 6.2k | $81k (exactly $81,058) | Zeitglas | |
 | For the Fatherland: Chronicle of Park Chung-hee | $14.99 | 176 88% | 5.3k | $79k (exactly $79,147) | KMS STUDIO | |
 | Below, Rusted Gods | $7.99 | 320 87% | 9.6k | $77k (exactly $76,704) | FromSouthGames | |
 | The World Well: Blood of Caro | $11.99 | 205 85% | 6.2k | $74k (exactly $73,738) | Nimparth |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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