Do I ship it?

GamesAutomationAutomation + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Automation game?

Automation + Alternate History

Only 15 developers shipped an Alternate-History Automation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Polylithic, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×199 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 24 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 24 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automation + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $7.9k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automation + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,676)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,017)
Top 5% $125k (exactly $125,017)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 36
Announced 24
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automation
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Automation
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,671 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds36 devs · median $57k · 31 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistStrong odds27 devs · median $4.5k · 32 announced
  3. + Open World Survival CraftFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  4. + HorrorFair19 devs · median $8.0k · 29 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair26 devs · median $7.9k · 24 announced
  6. + UndergroundFair20 devs · median $7.4k · 32 announced
  7. + Class-BasedFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  8. + MiningFair105 devs · median $4.9k · 164 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair112 devs · median $4.5k · 153 announced
  10. + ProgrammingFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  11. + FishingFair40 devs · median $3.4k · 46 announced
  12. + Turn-Based TacticsFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced

All 135 pairs on the Automation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
River Town Factory older $14.99 1,277 88% 38k $574k (exactly $574,267) iFAction Studio
Polylithic $14.99 278 71% 8.3k $125k (exactly $125,017) polyperfect
Execute $5.99 679 91% 20k $122k (exactly $122,016) Payne Robinson
MMO98 $6.99 511 69% 15k $107k (exactly $107,157) BiteMe Games
PRODUCER 2021 older $9.99 164 100% 4.9k $49k (exactly $49,151) Stuffed Wombat, ThorHighHeels
Immortal IDLE · EA $5.99 78 64% 2.3k $14k (exactly $14,017) 伯乐Couple
QuantumPulse 2A $11.99 30 93% 900 $11k (exactly $10,791) Dashing Strike
EarthRoyale 3 · EA $6.99 47 63% 1.4k $9.9k (exactly $9,856) Lizzycat / Lizabeth Gidlund
ComPressure older $4.99 65 86% 2.0k $9.7k (exactly $9,730) Charlie Brej
Nova Patria $11.99 22 100% 660 $7.9k (exactly $7,913) Sower Interactive
Idle Hero Siege $3.99 14 42% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) 光鸽
Restoration: Chronicles of Survival $2.99 9 66% 270 $807 (exactly $807) ALGaming
Commie Block $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Ape Brain Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.